203 FXUS64 KHUN 022135 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 435 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 The front edged northward slightly this afternoon and currently stretches from NW Tennessee SE into Chattanooga, Tennessee. This may push any isolated showers or thunderstorms north of the area this afternoon. However, kept ~20 PoP in the forecast in parts of northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. Any activity will dissipate quickly after sunset. General thunderstorms are expected possibly producing frequent lightning and gusty winds. Temperatures have climbed into the 81 to 85 degree range in most locations. We could still hit the mid to upper 80s before sunset. Models still push the front into southern Alabama overnight into Tuesday morning. This should bring drier air into the area and keep fog at bay, despite light winds. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 1020 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 A strong area of high pressure should build southwest back into the area on Tuesday, with the weak front well to our south over the northern gulf coast states. At the same time, a wave moving through the peninsula of Florida and into the western gulf should bring increased precipitation chances to Florida. The area of strong high pressure to our north should keep any rain chances south of the Birmingham area north of this wave. This should make for a nice, sunny day on Tuesday with highs a bit warmer pushing into the mid 80s in NE AL and upper 80s to lower 90s further west. These temperatures may be a bit too cool based on 925 mb temperatures which reach the 22 to 25 degree range. Thus, raised them a bit, mainly west of the I-65 corridor. An increasing pressure gradient Tuesday night should keep fog at bay. A slow moving frontal boundary continues to push east through eastern Texas and Missouri Tuesday night into Wednesday. A this front moves further east, a pre-frontal trough axis forms ahead of the front that ties back to the wave moving further west through the gulf. This pre-frontal trough axis will likely be the focusing mechanism for at least isolated to scattered convection along it into portions of northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee Wednesday afternoon (especially west of the I-65 corridor). Some of this activity could linger into the early evening hours before dissipating. At this time, general thunderstorm activity is expected. Despite 925mb temperatures remaining in the 20 to 24 degree range, clouds and convection will likely keep highs in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. It will be much more humid and therefore much warmer overnight on Wednesday though as low level moisture pools along that pre-frontal trough axis. Lows only drop into the upper 60s to lower 70s mainly. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 915 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 An extremely slow moving front will be to our northwest on Thursday while a cut off low will finally shift to the Southeast`s coast, but not make any further progress due to the high pressure in place along the eastern seaboard. This will leave us with low chances (~30%) of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. Luckily, there is only a few hundred J/kg of CAPE and meager shear so not expecting much in the way of strong/severe storms. However, these values rise on Friday and Saturday, especially during the afternoon hours and so do the PWATs. More of a westerly flow aloft will develop on Friday, letting the front only inch closer to the TN Valley, providing medium to high chances (60-70%) for showers and thunderstorm on both Friday and Saturday. Highs through the extended forecast will be in the mid to upper 80s with lows around 70. Storm chances will persist through the weekend, and models continue to show the boundary not really getting in here through the weekend. However, trends of the frontal location need to be monitored as concerns of not only stronger storms on Friday and Saturday, but with the westerly flow setting up nearly paralleling the front, and sending ripples through, flooding could become a concern if the front ends up farther south over us. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 435 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 VFR flight weather conditions are forecast. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KTW SHORT TERM....KTW LONG TERM....JMS AVIATION...17