465
FXUS64 KHUN 100818
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
318 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

The most interesting weather in the near term will likely have
ceased by the time the TN Valley wakes up to read this discussion.
A weak surface front is currently bisecting the CWA providing just
enough support for a weak line of showers and thunderstorms. Over
the last several hours this line has slowly pushed from west to
east in AL, weakening while doing do as the storms leave the more
favorable CAPE and shear behind them in MS. Thus, this weakening
trend is forecast to continue through daybreak with any lingering
showers and storms existing into Central Alabama by sunrise. The
moist environment will also support localized patchy to dense fog
especially in areas not impacted by showers and storms. Any fog
that does form will dissipate as the sun rises and winds pick up.

The remainder of the day will be much more benign. Surface high
pressure will work its way in behind the weak front and promote
high and dry conditions. With light winds and mostly clear skies
temps will easily reach the mid 80s. With afternoon dew points
dropping into the low 60s to high 50s, humidity will remain
manageable today making for a rather pleasant summer afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 906 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Northwest flow aloft will weaken considerably on Tuesday night,
with a low amplitude mid-level ridge predicted to build across the
region on Wednesday/Wednesday night to the east of a weak but
amplifying trough across the southern High Plains. This will yield
a period of dry weather, as a surface high will remain centered
across the southern Appalachians, providing light NE-
light/variable winds and dewpoints in the u50s-l60s. Highs will be
in the m-u 80s on Wednesday, bounded by lows in the l-m 60s
Tuesday night and Wednesday night.

During the period from Thursday-Thursday night, southwesterly
flow aloft will become established across the forecast area within
the gradient between a subtropical high centered off the
southeastern Atlantic Coast and the southern High Plains trough
(which will drift slowly east-northeastward across OK/TX). At the
surface, light southerly winds will resume as the ridge to our
northeast weakens over the southern Mid-Atlantic states, and this
will allow dewpoints to climb back into the u60s-l70s. The related
increase in CAPE, coupled with PWAT values rising back into the
1.6-1.8" range will support an increase in afternoon/evening
showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, but with weak deep-layer
flow and shear, convection will be unorganized and lightning/heavy
rainfall will be the primary impacts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 906 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Data from the latest suite of global models suggests that deep-
layer southwesterly flow will continue across the TN Valley
throughout the extended period, as our region will remain along
the northwest rim of a subtropical ridge retrograding across the
FL peninsula and a slow-moving shortwave trough that will remain
centered in the vicinity of the Arklatex through early next week.
With precipitable values predicted to rise further into the
1.9-2.1" range by Friday evening (and remain in this range through
Monday), a high spatial coverage of showers/thunderstorms can be
expected each afternoon and evening, with potential for mainly
outflow-initiated convection continuing through the early morning
hours, as well. In the absence of synoptic scale lift and within
an environment characterized by very weak flow, we expect highly
unorganized updrafts that may still be capable of producing
localized microburst winds on a daily basis given sufficient
afternoon CAPE and low-level lapse rates. Thus, lightning and
heavy rain/flooding will be the primary concerns, along with
occasional strong winds. Highs will generally be in the m80s-l90s
with lows in the u60s-l70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1108 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

A weak prefrontal sfc trough will continue to shift southeastward
across northern AL overnight, providing sufficient lift to
maintain an isolated coverage of SHRA/TSRA through 6-8Z at the
terminals. However, due to the sparse nature of coverage, we will
not include precipitation in the forecast attm. Otherwise,
clearing skies, light winds and narrow dewpoint depressions will
support development of BR/FG until a drier airmass slowly begins
to spread across the region by sunrise, and MVFR vsby reductions
have been included in a TEMPO group from 6-10Z. Sct high-based Cu
will return by 15Z and should dissipate tomorrow evening, with sfc
winds veering to NW and strengthening to 5-10 kts during this
timeframe as well.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70