907 FXUS64 KHUN 020216 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 916 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight and Monday) Issued at 915 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 A weak frontal boundary continues to drift south and east with latest satellite imagery showing it stretching from Paducah southeast towards Knoxville. Showers and storms that developed along this boundary have weakened considerably with the loss of daytime heating. Therefore, a dry night is in store for the local forecast area. Light winds and mostly clear skies will allow for overnight lows to drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Another beautiful weather day is forecast on Monday. High pressure slowly begins to build along the Gulf coast and move northward. As a result, dry weather continues to start the work week with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. Good boundary layer mixing should help develop a Cu field in the afternoon which may help scatter out some of the wildfire smoke aloft. HRRR vertically integrated smoke agrees with this thinking by showing a slight decrease in concentration over northern AL and southern middle TN. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Wednesday) Issued at 915 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 High pressure anchors itself in as we head into the middle of the week. With the upper level ridge amplifying and shifting from Deep South into the Southeast, southerly flow returns bringing in both warmer and more moisture rich air. Highs both Tuesday and Wednesday climb into the upper 80s and would not be surprised to see our first 90 degree day of the year. Humidity also begins to increase with dewpoints slowly creeping back up into the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 915 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 An extremely slow moving front will be to our northwest on Thursday while a cut off low will finally shift to the Southeast`s coast, but not make any further progress due to the high pressure in place along the eastern seaboard. This will leave us with low chances (20-30%) of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. Luckily, there is only a few hundred J/kg of CAPE and meager shear so not expecting much in the way of strong/severe storms. However, these values rise on Friday and Saturday, especially during the afternoon hours and so do the PWATs. More of a westerly flow aloft will develop on Friday, letting the front only inch closer to the TN Valley, providing medium to high chances (60-70%) for showers and thunderstorm on both Friday and Saturday. Highs through the extended forecast will be in the mid to upper 80s with lows around 70. Storm chances will persist through the weekend, and models continue to show the boundary not really getting in here through the weekend. However trends of the frontal location need to be monitored as concerns of not only stronger storms on Friday and Saturday, but with the westerly flow setting up nearly paralleling the front, and sending ripples through, flooding could become a concern if the front ends up farther south over us. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 535 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Light winds and VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GH SHORT TERM....GH LONG TERM....JMS AVIATION...GH