203
FXUS64 KHUN 022135
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
435 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

The front edged northward slightly this afternoon and currently
stretches from NW Tennessee SE into Chattanooga, Tennessee. This
may push any isolated showers or thunderstorms north of the area
this afternoon. However, kept ~20 PoP in the forecast in parts of
northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. Any activity will
dissipate quickly after sunset. General thunderstorms are expected
possibly producing frequent lightning and gusty winds. Temperatures
have climbed into the 81 to 85 degree range in most locations. We
could still hit the mid to upper 80s before sunset.

Models still push the front into southern Alabama overnight into
Tuesday morning. This should bring drier air into the area and
keep fog at bay, despite light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 1020 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

A strong area of high pressure should build southwest back into
the area on Tuesday, with the weak front well to our south over
the northern gulf coast states. At the same time, a wave moving
through the peninsula of Florida and into the western gulf should
bring increased precipitation chances to Florida. The area of
strong high pressure to our north should keep any rain chances
south of the Birmingham area north of this wave. This should make
for a nice, sunny day on Tuesday with highs a bit warmer pushing
into the mid 80s in NE AL and upper 80s to lower 90s further west.
These temperatures may be a bit too cool based on 925 mb
temperatures which reach the 22 to 25 degree range. Thus, raised
them a bit, mainly west of the I-65 corridor.

An increasing pressure gradient Tuesday night should keep fog at
bay. A slow moving frontal boundary continues to push east
through eastern Texas and Missouri Tuesday night into Wednesday. A
this front moves further east, a pre-frontal trough axis forms
ahead of the front that ties back to the wave moving further west
through the gulf. This pre-frontal trough axis will likely be the
focusing mechanism for at least isolated to scattered convection
along it into portions of northern Alabama and southern middle
Tennessee Wednesday afternoon (especially west of the I-65
corridor). Some of this activity could linger into the early
evening hours before dissipating. At this time, general
thunderstorm activity is expected. Despite 925mb temperatures
remaining in the 20 to 24 degree range, clouds and convection will
likely keep highs in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. It will be
much more humid and therefore much warmer overnight on Wednesday
though as low level moisture pools along that pre-frontal trough
axis. Lows only drop into the upper 60s to lower 70s mainly.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)

Issued at 915 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

An extremely slow moving front will be to our northwest on
Thursday while a cut off low will finally shift to the
Southeast`s coast, but not make any further progress due to the
high pressure in place along the eastern seaboard. This will leave
us with low chances (~30%) of showers and thunderstorms on
Thursday. Luckily, there is only a few hundred J/kg of CAPE and
meager shear so not expecting much in the way of strong/severe
storms. However, these values rise on Friday and Saturday,
especially during the afternoon hours and so do the PWATs. More of
a westerly flow aloft will develop on Friday, letting the front
only inch closer to the TN Valley, providing medium to high
chances (60-70%) for showers and thunderstorm on both Friday and
Saturday. Highs through the extended forecast will be in the mid
to upper 80s with lows around 70.

Storm chances will persist through the weekend, and models continue
to show the boundary not really getting in here through the weekend.
However, trends of the frontal location need to be monitored as
concerns of not only stronger storms on Friday and Saturday, but
with the westerly flow setting up nearly paralleling the front,
and sending ripples through, flooding could become a concern if the
front ends up farther south over us.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 435 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

VFR flight weather conditions are forecast.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...17