436 FXUS64 KMOB 020521 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1221 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 343 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Tonight through Monday Night... Very isolated light showers and sprinkles may occur this evening across southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama as a weak upper shortwave passes over the Deep South. Otherwise, a low-level ridge will remain across the southeast states, keeping the area rain-free late tonight through Monday night. Patchy light fog may develop late Monday night west of the Tombigbee River as well. Temperatures will remain close to normal through the near term. Lows interior areas tonight and Monday night will be in the middle 60s, upper 60s to lower 70s along the coast, with middle 70s at the beaches and barrier islands. High temperatures Monday should range from 87 to 92 degrees. A LOW Rip Current Risk will continue. /22 Tuesday through Sunday... Tuesday starts off with an upper ridge centered over the Carolinas, which noses westward into our area. A broad upper trof spanning the western and central states on Tuesday slowly advances into the eastern states through Friday. The 01.12Z global models shows an upper trof centered anywhere from the southeast US to over the Florida Peninsula the latter half of the week. This feature looks to become absorbed into an evolving broad east coast upper trof Friday which lingers into the weekend. In response to this feature, a weak surface low/inverted surface trof appears to develop over the southeast states at some point Wednesday into Wednesday night and then drifts towards the Carolinas late in the work week. Meanwhile, a wave of frontal low pressure is progged to eject rapidly eastward over the OH River Valley the latter half of the week. The latest guidance appears to hold the front up well to the north of the area. Dry conditions are expected for Tuesday with the upper ridge over the area, Slight chance to chance pops Wednesday, trend to chance pops areawide by Thursday as the environment becomes more convectively favorable. Modest pops continue each day Friday through Sunday to account for the eastward passage of mid level impulses at the base of the broad upper trof east of the MS River Valley, operating on sufficient environmental moisture over the central Gulf coast. Highs range from upper 80`s to lower half of the 90`s interior and some 2 to 5 degrees above normal on average. Mid 80`s and closer to normal along the coast with onshore component of flow coming in off the Gulf. Overnight lows starting off upper 60`s to lower 70`s interior Tuesday night will warm through the remainder of the period into the lower to mid 70`s and well above normal. More muggy along the coast at mid to upper 70`s. A low risk of rip currents through mid week will be followed by a moderate risk for Thursday and Friday. /10 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 VFR conditions under mid/high level clouds expected overnight. A few showers are possible overnight, mainly west of the AL/FL state line, but hey will be few and far between. Light winds are expected overnight, becoming southeast to south around 10 knots in the afternoon as a seabreeze moves inland. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 343 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 No significant impacts to small craft are expected through Friday. Variable winds less than 10 knots will occur through Monday night. Light to moderate southeasterly flow is established for Tuesday afternoon into Thursday, shifting southwesterly late in the week. /22 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob