549
FXUS64 KMOB 230603
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1203 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1202 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

  - A moderate rip current risk will be in place through midweek.

  - Well above average temperatures are expected all week,
    including Christmas Day.

  - Dense fog will likely become a common occurrence each night
    across the entire area starting Tuesday night. Dense sea fog
    may linger well past daybreak each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1202 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

A strong upper ridge will build northward over the nation`s
midsection today with the axis gradually shifting eastward to near
the Mississippi River on Christmas Day. This ridge will then
slowly breakdown through the remainder of the week, with zonal
flow returning on Sunday as a large upper trough passes over the
north central and Great Lakes regions. A surface ridge across
Georgia, Alabama, and northern Florida will get shunted southward
through this evening, with a high pressure area eventually setting
up across our area around midnight tonight and remaining into
Christmas morning. These two features will keep our forecast area
dry and very warm over the Christmas holiday and into the weekend.
This environment will be ideal for dense fog formation each night
starting tonight through potentially Saturday night. In addition,
the combination of dew points rising into the lower to middle 60s
during the daytime hours and moving over water temperatures in
the middle to upper 50s, dense sea fog formation is likely each
night that will likely linger through the morning hours. The next
chance of rain showers is expected on Sunday as a strong cold
front associated with the upper trough blasts through the region.

We expect high temperatures to rise into the middle to upper 70s
each day this week away from the coast, with a few locations
reaching the lower 80s. These temperatures are about 13 to 18
degrees above normal. Highs along the coast will be in the lower
70s due to the cool Gulf waters. Low temps will also be about 13
to 18 degrees above normal through the same time frame, and could
be as high as 17 to 22 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday
nights. By Monday, highs should only reach the middle 40s to lower
50s with subfreezing temperatures expected Monday night.

Beach Forecast: A MODERATE rip current risk will continue through
midweek, becoming LOW Thursday through the remainder of the week.
/22

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

VFR ceilings and visibilities should persist through much of this
TAF period as drier low level air has advected below roughly 5kft
under light east to northeasterly low level flow. Southeasterly
winds on Tuesday will allow for a moist airmass to advect back
over our coastal counties and eventually the entire forecast area
Tuesday evening and night. As this occurs, expect the return of
fog, potentially dense, to develop especially at the TAF sites.
/22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1202 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Mariners operating on area bays, sounds, and the nearshore Gulf
waters should be aware of dense sea fog becoming increasingly
likely each night starting tonight and lingering through the
remainder of the week. A light easterly to southeasterly flow will
continue through tonight, becoming light and variable midweek
into Thursday. Light southwesterly flow develops Thursday night
and continues through the remainder of the week. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  56  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   71  57  74  55 /   0   0   0  10
Destin      71  57  73  56 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   77  52  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  77  53  77  52 /   0   0   0  10
Camden      76  52  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   76  52  78  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$