081 FXUS62 KTAE 170011 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 811 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 808 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025 No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary. Tonight will be a radiational cooling night, which means low temperatures will generally be 1-5 degrees cooler than the NBM guidance. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 132 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Surface high pressure passes just north and then northeast of the region tonight through Thursday. This will lead to light winds and a continuation of clear skies overnight. This should also allow good radiational cooling conditions and overnight lows will drop into the upper 40s and low 50s tonight. As surface high pressure moves east on Thursday, winds will turn southeasterly and begin to warm. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s on Thursday. With plenty of dry air still around, and the potential for good mixing during the afternoon, another day of very low relative humidity is expected. This will lead to somewhat elevated fire concerns for the day. Please remember to be cautious with any activity involving flame. && .SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 132 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Temperatures will warm through the upcoming weekend and into early next week with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s and near 90 in some locations by the weekend. An upper level ridge will establish itself over the southeast through the weekend and into early next week with several weather systems staying well north and west of the forecast area as southerly flow generally prevails through the period. As the ridge begins to weaken by next week, some low-level moisture and perhaps a weak cold front could help generate daily chances for showers/storms, but probabilities for any higher rainfall still looks very low at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 808 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with mostly clear skies. Calm winds overnight will become easterly Thursday morning, then veer to southerly Thursday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 132 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Winds and seas begin to clock around to the southeast on Thursday. Daily southeasterly surges can be expected around daybreak with winds around 10-15 kts and occasional gusts to 20 knots through Friday. Seas will increase accordingly with seas likely 2 to 4 feet from Friday onwards into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 132 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Light northerly transport winds Thursday morning become southeasterly and then southerly through the day with another dry afternoon expected. Relative humidities could drop down to around 20 to 25% across much of the area. Stronger winds expected on Friday as southerly flow moves in. Dispersions will be higher but relative humidity values will also climb some and despite the higher dispersions, this should lower fire weather concerns slightly into the weekend. There are no chances for a wetting rain until next week, and even then only a slight chance of showers and storms is forecast. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 132 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Rain chances through Sunday are nearly nil. Less than a quarter of an inch of rainfall is expected for the region through early next week, there are currently no flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 46 83 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 53 80 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 50 83 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 47 82 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 46 84 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 44 85 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 50 76 63 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...DVD NEAR TERM...Dobbs SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...DVD MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Dobbs