751
FXUS62 KTAE 090008
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
808 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025
An active weather pattern continues through the near term with
multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms expected. Some of the
storms may be severe with damaging wind gusts the primary concern
along with some large hail about the size of a quarter.
Additionally, there is a signal within some of the Convection
Allowing Models (CAMs) for 2-4" rainfall totals, with isolated
pockets of 6"+ possible.
Ongoing showers and storms continue this afternoon along the
residual outflow boundary from the storms that impacted central
Alabama and Georgia early this morning. These storms are tapping
into some 800-1000 J/kg of DCAPE to produce some gusty 40 to 50
mph winds. Convection Allowing Models (CAMs) continue to suggest
additional showers and storms later this evening where the
aforementioned outflow boundary and seabreeze collide, or over the
Florida Panhandle or southeast Alabama. The concerning part here
is the mean flow is virtually parallel to this boundary. In other
words, training showers and storms are possible this evening into
tonight. Rainfall totals of 2" to 4" are very much in the realm of
possibility with isolated totals of 6"+ having about a 10% chance
of occurring according to the HREF. This would prompt isolated
instances of flash flooding. As a result, the Weather Prediction
Center (WPC) has issued a Slight Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Excessive
Rainfall across parts of the Florida Panhandle and southeastern
Alabama. Eventually, the cluster of showers and storms should sag
into the Gulf before dawn Monday.
Looking upstream, a robust batch of showers and storms developing
in Oklahoma and Texas will race east-southeast into Louisiana,
Arkansas, and Mississippi tonight into early Monday morning. There
remains some question as to whether it will be able to sustain
itself into our region or not later Monday morning into the
afternoon. The main reason for that being the shortwave
responsible for it will be shearing out along with the likelihood
our atmosphere will be pretty worked over by this
evening`s/tonight`s storms. Still, deep layer shear of around
20-25 knots is more than enough this time of year to allow any
storms that happen to develop Monday afternoon to be on the strong
to severe side; damaging winds would be the primary concern, but
some large hail cannot be ruled out either. Even if the MCS
doesn`t make it here Monday, we`ll still have our morning tropical
downpours to deal with along the coast and some seabreeze showers
and storms later in the afternoon; it`s just a matter as to
whether the seabreeze is more robust or not is the question
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025
An upper level low centered over the Great Lakes region will have
the trough digging down to the southeast. A shortwave along the
trough will bring showers and thunderstorms to our CWA during the
short term period. Major models indicate instability and steep
lapse rates. Storms Monday night could bring strong wind gusts and
large hail. The SPC does have the northern half of our CWA in a
Slight (level 2 of 5) Risk for severe storms continuing from
Monday into Monday night. Also of note, the PWATs will be around
1.75 to 2", which implies that the storms could be heavy rain
producers. The weather activity for the short term will be
determined by what happens prior in the near term; particularly
how much instability remains after Sunday`s storms. PoPs for
Monday night range from 25-80 percent, with the higher values to
the northwest. As the night continues into Tuesday, shower and
thunderstorm coverage will increase to a widespread 60-80 percent
chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon.
Temperatures on Tuesday will start in the low to mid 70s, warmer
along the coast. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 80s to low
90s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025
By Wednesday, a surface high settles over the Tennessee Valley
with an upper level ridge beginning to build. The surface high
will move east over the Atlantic and the upper level ridge will
extend through the rest of the work week. We will remain in a
typical summertime- like pattern with daily chances for showers
and thunderstorms during the afternoons with PoPs averaging 70-80
percent. Temperatures during the long term will generally be in
the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the low to low-mid 70s.
By the end of the week, peak heat index values are expected to be
in the upper 90s to low 100s range for most areas each afternoon
with a few pockets occasionally approaching the local heat
advisory criteria of 108.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 805 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025
The best opportunity for showers/storms tonight is likely to be
in the Florida Panhandle into southeastern Alabama, or near KECP
and KDHN. There is some question as to the eastward extent with
these thunderstorms, so kept VCTS in the TAFs for KABY and KTLH as
a bit of a hedge.
Beyond 12Z Monday, the forecast gets even more murky as it
largely depends on what happens later this evening and tonight. Do
believe there will be a few ongoing showers at the very least
near KDHN/KECP with a few more possible near KTLH/KVLD.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025
High pressure with south/southwesterly winds will continue over
the waters for the next few days with seas forecast to be 2-3 feet
until midweek, which will then decrease to about 1-2 foot seas.
Showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day and to be
diurnally driven.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025
High dispersions are expected across much of the area again
Monday outside of any showers/storms. Fire concerns remain rather
low thanks to elevated humidity and rain chances the next several
days. Winds will generally be out of the west to southwest through
Tuesday at around 10 mph each afternoon with a few gusts to near
20 mph. The best chances for rain will be tonight and again during
the day Monday. Some of the storms could be strong to severe the
next couple of days with damaging straight line winds the primary
concern along with some hail.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Locally heavy rain remains possible within any of the showers or
storms thanks to precipitable water values (PWATs) between 1.7" to
2.0", or near the 90th percentile for early-mid June. Isolated
flash flooding is a possibility for the next few days as clusters
of thunderstorms could train over the area, especially as we see
the soil continue to moisten with each round of showers and
storms. The best chance of that occurring is across southwest
Georgia, southeast Alabama, and the eastern Florida Panhandle.
There is a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall today
for our Central time zone counties, with a Marginal (1 of 4) for
the rest of the region. The Marginal risks continue through
Tuesday. Fortunately, area rivers and streams remain in good shape
with gradual rises possible.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 75 91 75 90 / 50 50 40 80
Panama City 77 88 76 87 / 60 50 70 80
Dothan 72 89 71 86 / 60 60 80 80
Albany 72 89 71 87 / 50 60 70 70
Valdosta 74 91 74 91 / 60 60 40 70
Cross City 74 91 72 91 / 20 40 10 50
Apalachicola 78 87 77 86 / 30 50 50 70
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ Monday for
FLZ108-112-114.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Reese
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...DVD