101
FXUS62 KTAE 090057
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
857 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

No changes appear necessary to the forecast at this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Generally dry, breezy and pleasant conditions are expected through
Wednesday, with only increasing rain chances across the southeast
Big Bend due to the approach of Hurricane Milton. Expect highs in
the mid 70s to low 80s Wednesday afternoon with lows in the mid
60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 333 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Breezy conditions are expected to continue through the short term
as Milton pushes by to the southeast and east, with the windiest
time frame generally expected during the day on Thursday. At some
point as Milton moves by it should be undergoing extratropical
transition and interacting with a frontal boundary nearby, causing
gusty gradient winds to extend well outside the usual envelop of a
tropical system. We will likely need a wind advisory for portions
of the Florida Big Bend and southern Georgia not covered under
tropical headlines on Thursday, and these winds could hamper
recovery efforts from Helene and/or cause damage to weakened trees
or structures. See the Hurricane Local Statement for the latest on
Hurricane Milton.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 333 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Generally dry and relatively cool conditions are expected in the
wake of Milton as high pressure settles in over the area. Highs
are forecast to drop into the 70s across most of the area Friday
before gradually warming through the weekend. Lows are forecast in
the upper 40s to mid 50s (yes you read that right!) Saturday
morning before again gradually warming. No rainfall is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 715 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

VFR but breezy conditions are expected through the period as the
gradient tightens in response to a stationary front nearby and
Hurricane Milton gradually approaching Florida.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect from Indian Pass to the
mouth of the Suwannee River. For our waters west of Apalachee Bay, a
Small Craft Advisory is in effect.

Winds and seas will increase heading into Wednesday as Milton tracks
towards the Florida peninsula. The strongest winds and highest seas
are expected from late Wednesday into Thursday morning. After Milton
passes, winds and seas will be on a decreasing trend heading into
the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Generally dry and breezy conditions are expected for the next several
days as Hurricane Milton gets closer and pushes across the Florida
Peninsula. The eastern Big Bend could see some rainfall from Milton,
but the rest of the area is expected to remain fairly dry. However,
very breezy conditions are expected particularly on Thursday as Milton
passes to the southeast and east, driving up dispersions as a result.
Otherwise, there are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Forecast rainfall with Hurricane Milton exhibits a very sharp
gradient of values across the southeast FL Big Bend. Generally, a
widespread 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher amounts near 3
inches will be possible across the southeast Big Bend, with
little rainfall expected elsewhere. These higher totals could lead
to some flash flooding, but the most likely impact from heavy
rainfall at this time appears to be the hindrance to ongoing
recovery efforts in the wake of Helene. Any impact Hurricane
Milton may have on the Suwannee River will likely come from
upstream flows out of the Santa Fe River, but we`ll have to wait
and see what happens in that basin at this point. Otherwise, no
additional heavy rainfall or flooding is expected.

Any northward shifts in the track and/or further expansion of the
forecast size of Milton could cause forecast rainfall values to
increase again.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   70  79  66  79 /   0  10  10   0
Panama City   70  81  65  82 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        65  82  61  81 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        65  79  62  79 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      68  78  66  76 /   0  20  20  10
Cross City    72  79  68  77 /  20  80  60  30
Apalachicola  72  79  67  80 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Watch for FLZ018-019.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ028-029-034-115-118-127-128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ730-752-755-765-772-775.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for GMZ750-770.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...DVD