039
FXUS62 KTAE 170300
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1000 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 954 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

- The only rain-maker in the next week will occur on Thursday
  and Thursday night. There is a medium chance of beneficial
  rains exceeding one-quarter inch. There is a very low chance of
  strong or severe storms over coastal communities.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 954 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

The forecast is currently on track, updates don`t appear necessary
this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Through Wednesday, low-level flow will clock around from
northeasterly to a milder southeast direction, as a surface high
over the Southeast States slowly moves east into the Atlantic.
Surface dewpoints in the mid 50s over Central Florida this
afternoon will spread off to the northwest, further moistening the
near-surface air mass and aiding a warming trend. The addition of
shallow moisture will also contribute to fog development early
Wednesday morning, mainly over far south Georgia and the Florida
Big Bend. The best chance of reduced visibility will extend from
Tallahassee and Bainbridge over to Tifton and Valdosta.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 243 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Satellite imagery nicely highlights a southern stream shortwave
plodding across TX and southern OK this afternoon. As this feature
moves east, an attendant cold front will pass across our region on
Thursday night and early Friday morning.

In advance of the front, deep southerly flow on Wed night and
Thursday will grab the nose of deeper moisture currently over the
southern Straits of Florida, and transport it up across the
northeast Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, a weak frontal wave will ride
east along the northern Gulf Coast, adding some large-scale lift
to act on the richly moist air mass with 1.5+ inch Precipitable
Water values.

Weak to possibly moderate surface-based instability will
overspread the Gulf waters and the immediate coast on Thu
afternoon and evening. The overlapping shear profile will be
seasonably strong, with deep-layer bulk shear around 50 knots and
healthy directional shear in the low-levels. This will be
especially true if a frontal wave can help the surface flow to be
any more directionally backed than forecast. Much of the
uncertainty now is how far north and inland the surface-based
instability will be able to penetrate. Once you get up into
our Georgia and Alabama counties, there is unlikely to be enough
surface-based instability for strong or severe storms, so it will
mainly be some embedded elevated thunder that far north.

Beneficial rains are expected, though not enough to provide actual
drought relief. See the Hydrology section for more.

Once the cold front sweeps through on Thu night or early Fri
morning, a seasonably cool and dry air mass will arrive for later
Friday into Saturday. There is a high chance on Saturday morning
of starting off with cold enough temperatures (roughly 37 degrees
or less) for some frost over inland locations.

A moderating trend will get underway late Saturday, as surface
high pressure to our north moves east into the Atlantic.

On Sunday and Monday, the southern periphery of strong high
pressure moving from the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley will
bridge south across our region. As a result, our low-level
easterly flow will ramp up. Gusty easterly winds are a possibility
on Monday and Tuesday afternoons. This is a mild direction with a
strong maritime influence from the Atlantic. When considering the
development of impressively strong (by December standards) high
pressure aloft developing across the northern Gulf Coast next week,
the week will confidently feature above normal temperatures. Even
by Monday and Tuesday, nighttime and daytime temps will run 5-10
degrees above normal. Easterly flow and warm air aloft is also a
favored cold season regime for nighttime and morning fog, if
nighttime winds can decouple and weaken enough.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Later tonight fog and/low stratus encroach onto TLH/VLD, and
possibly as far as ABY/ECP, where flt restrictions are possible.
A mix of MVFR vsbys/cigs are fcst at those sites. There is a
chance for further degradation depending on where this activity
focuses, VLD stands the best chance at seeing IFR conditions.
Confidence is medium. A return to VFR is expected tmrw morning
under mostly cloudy skies and a lgt/vrb east to NE wind.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Gentle to moderate northeast breezes will clock around and become
more southeasterly on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Southerly
breezes will freshen on Thursday, in advance of a cold front that
will pass the waters early Friday. A shift to fresh or strong
northerly breezes will follow the front on Friday. Winds will
decrease and clock around northeasterly and easterly through the
weekend, as high pressure to the north moves east into the
Atlantic.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 243 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Low mixing heights and weak transport winds will keep daytime
dispersion in poor ranges through Wednesday. Poor dispersion will
continue on Thursday, when transport winds will increase, but thick
clouds and some incoming rain will contribute more heavily to the
poor dispersion. Districts west of the Apalachicola and Flint Rivers
have a better than 50 percent chance of picking up a wetting rain
exceeding one-quarter inch. Then a cold front will pass across on
Thursday night or early Friday, followed by dry and seasonably cool
conditions on Friday and Saturday.

Patchy fog is expected Wednesday morning over far south Georgia
and the Florida Big Bend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 243 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Flooding is not expected for the next 7 days.

The only rain-maker for the next week will occur on Thursday and
Thursday night, in advance of a cold front early Friday morning.
Most locations will get some rain. Places west of the Apalachicola
and Flint Rivers have a better-than 50 percent chance of exceeding
1/4 inch, while chances are lower for locations to the east. There
may be a narrow corridor of 1-2 inch rainfall amounts.

Any rain is beneficial of course, but these amounts will offer
little or no drought relief. For more information on local impacts
from drought, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   43  67  54  68 /   0   0  10  70
Panama City   45  66  54  70 /   0  10  30  80
Dothan        37  63  50  67 /   0   0  20  70
Albany        36  64  50  67 /   0   0  10  60
Valdosta      40  67  53  70 /   0   0  10  70
Cross City    46  73  56  74 /   0   0  10  50
Apalachicola  50  65  58  68 /   0   0  30  80

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner