161 FXUS64 KHUN 122312 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 612 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Additional moisture along with daytime heating has resulted in isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon. This activity started over NE Alabama, which have moved across eastern Tennessee. Other storms fired over and around NW Alabama, and were slowly tracking to the NNE across NW and north central Alabama, so far to the west of I-65. Otherwise away from shower activity, 3 PM temperatures have risen into mid 80s to around 90 with SSW winds of 5-10 mph. Shower activity now in progress should fade as we go into the evening. However, some of the guidance was showing an approaching upper level system, that could bring more chances of showers and storms coming in from the west this evening. Otherwise, mild conditions are forecast for tonight, with lows from the mid 60s NE Alabama to lower 70s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Sunday) Issued at 1037 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 A near rinse-and-repeat forecast is on tap for Friday through the weekend as the aforementioned area of low pressure meanders across the local area. Much higher rain and storm chances exist/increase as we go into the weekend, with Friday/Saturday housing the best shot for Northern AL/Srn Middle TN. Heavy rainfall will again be the primary hazard during this time. PWATS will keep the sticky conditions in place this weekend, topping out at/near 2", which will remain near the daily max/record PWAT Climatology for the CWFA. Rises on area creeks may occur in areas where showers/storms repeatedly train across locations, so this will be monitored as we head into next week. Daytime highs in between showers will top out in the middle to upper 80s, with a few spots making a run at 90 degrees. This will cause heat index values to creep upward as we end the weekend and head into the new work week. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 An active pattern will continue through Father`s Day weekend and into early next week as the broad upper-low lingers across the Deep South. This will result in medium to high chances for showers and storms each day, favoring the afternoon and evening hours. A few of these storms could become locally strong, but the main concern will continue to be the potential for locally heavy rainfall from these very efficient rain-producing thunderstorms. Dense cloud cover and high rain chances will keep highs in the mid 80s during this timeframe, with peak heat index values remaining in the mid to perhaps upper 80s. Ridging will begin to take shape by midweek, lowering rain chances and potentially giving us more heat impacts by Wednesday as heat indices are forecast to peak above 100 degrees -- with a few locations flirting with Advisory criteria. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category through the period. Widespread SHRA/TSRA will develop during the day on Friday and have added prevailing SHRA to the forecast after 18z, with a PROB30 for MVFR TSRA impacts late in the period. AWWs and amendments may be needed during this window. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM....12 LONG TERM....AMP AVIATION...AMP.24