877 FXUS64 KHUN 161937 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 237 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 As upper level ridging moves into the area from the west and sfc high pressure continues to dominate the southeast, dry weather persists through the Tennessee Valley. Low temperatures overnight are forecast to drop into the mid to upper 40s accompanied by light, variable winds and mostly clear skies. As a result, a very low chance of fog is exists along bodies of waters. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 1142 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 On Thursday, surface high pressure will be moving across the VA/NC region, and establishing a southerly flow. This flow and rising heights and more sun than clouds, should produce even warmer conditions. High temperatures tomorrow should rise into the mid 70s to around 80, with southerly winds of 5-15 mph. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values should be reduced into the upper 20s percent range. Low temperatures Thursday night should be milder in the 50s (lower 50s east to upper 50s west). Even warmer conditions under partly cloudy skies are forecast for Good Friday, with highs rising into the low/mid 80s. Lows Friday night will range from the mid 50s east to mid 60s west. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Latest extended range model guidance suggests that an amplifying shortwave (embedded within the base of a broader longwave trough to our west) will advance eastward across the southern Rockies on Saturday, before acquiring a sharp negative tilt as it ejects northeastward from the southern High Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes Saturday night-Sunday night. At the surface, moderate southerly flow will continue across the TN Valley as the related surface low tracks slowly eastward across northwest TX Saturday, before deepening and lifting northeastward into southwestern MO Saturday night and into the Great Lakes by Sunday night. Widespread anafrontal convection will remain focused well to our north/west (in the vicinity of a stationary front) on Saturday/Saturday night, although outflow emanating from this activity may sneak into northwest AL early Sunday morning perhaps initiating a few showers/storms prior to sunrise. Present indications are that a QLCS will gradually develop late Sunday morning in the vicinity of a prefrontal surface trough as it tracks eastward across MO/AR and into the Mid-South region. Although there are notable differences in timing (likely related to the stronger deep-layer forcing for ascent with the mid-level trough bypassing our region to the north), the prefrontal trough will eventually be overtaken by the cold front, with this feature continuing to focus the development of convection as it spreads slowly southeastward across our CWFA (likely at some point late Sunday night/early Monday morning). Mid-level SW flow of 45-55 knots will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, but with only minor veering in the surface-500 mb layer and shear aligned nearly parallel to the surface boundary, multicell storm clusters would be the favored storm mode. With dewpoints in the u50s-m60s beneath weak lapse rates aloft generating CAPE of 250-750 J/kg, marginally severe wind and hail will be capable with these clusters, and although the low level jet will certainly not be as strong as it could be this time of year (30-40 knots), sufficient low-level shear will exist for a few brief tornadoes. Convection will come to an end as the front drifts further southeastward Monday, with a slightly cooler/drier airmass infiltrating the region Monday night/Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 VFR conditions should continue across the area for the TAF. Surface high pressure over the region will build east, bringing a southerly flow across the area on Thu. Light winds into the overnight, should become southerly 5-15kt after daybreak Thu morning. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HC SHORT TERM....RSB LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...RSB