803
FXUS64 KHUN 172251
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
451 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1113 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

 - Medium to high chances of showers Thursday and Thursday night.
   A very low chance of thunderstorms Thursday night. A very
   isolated chance of a strong to severe storm producing damaging
   winds.

 - Much colder Friday into Friday night with lows back at or below
   freezing.

 - A solid warm up from the weekend into next week with low
   chances of showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1113 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Mainly high cloud cover is in place from portions of NW Alabama
ENE into much of southern middle Tennessee. Some clear skies
remain in place from Cullman northeast into DeKalb counties at
this hour. This area will gradually fill in towards and after the
noon hour. This additional sunshine and increasing low level warm
air advection this afternoon should allow temperatures to climb
into the 55 to 61 degree range in those areas this afternoon.

Though radar returns suggest precipitation is in place beneath
these clouds, extreme dry air in a layer between 500 mb (especially
around 880 to 890 mb) is likely evaporating any precipitation
aloft. A token 15 to 20 percent chance of light rain from northwest
AL into NE Alabama was kept this morning. However, the very
strong forcing around 700 mb that is forcing this precipitation
aloft moves east into Georgia shortly after noon as well. This
should put an end to precipitation chances. However, mid/high
cloud cover will linger with additional weak to moderate vorticity
over the area further aloft.

Near and north of the Tennessee River should remain cooler due to
more persistent cloud cover today. Highs in those areas will
likely only reach the 50 to 55 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 1113 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

A strong upper low and associated very amplified longwave trough
axis continues to be shown moving from the Northern Plains into
the western Great Lakes region on Thursday. Deep and strong
forcing develops east of that system from the western Ohio Valley
region into Missouri. Strong shear develops as well ahead of this
cold front. However, instability is really none existent ahead of
the front. Persistent southwest to southerly winds upstream will
slowly increase the moisture in the atmospheric column tonight
ahead and well east of this developing system. The boundary layer
moisture will really advect into the area though during the day
on Thursday. Deep, strong shear (40-60 knots) extends south all
the way into southern Alabama ahead of this front. However, it
will still be a tall order to advect high enough dewpoints and
temperatures north into to the area to keep a very low level
inversion from setting up around 850 mb. This will likely keep any
severe thunderstorms from occurring.

A few models do show very isolated SBCAPE ahead of the front
between 50 and 100 J/KG, but extremely spotty. Keeping isolated
storms in the forecast, but this may be pushing it. If the barely
SBCAPE is realized ahead of the front an isolated strong to severe
storm could occur, but confidence in that happening is extremely
low. Heavy rain due to fairly high PWATS and deep strong forcing
will likely be the most likely scenario. It will be very
windy/gusts though despite the inversion. Gradient winds will
likely be between 15 and 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. It the
inversion ends up being higher or weaker, then a wind advisory may
be needed Thursday into Thursday evening. However, at this time,
that looks unlikely. With the weak, strong lift expected ahead of
this cold front, from 1 to locally around 2 inches in a few
locations could occur from Thursday afternoon into Thursday
evening. Winds will become a bit lighter late Thursday night, but
still remain around 10 to mph with gusts between 20 and 25
primarily. However, rainfall should end from west to east after 1
AM.

Friday should be sunny with winds between 5 and 10 mph gusting to
around 15 mph in the afternoon. Fairly strong cold air advection
will keep highs in the lower 40s to around 50s degrees. Lows will
drop back into the mid 30s to lower 30s with the drier and colder
air advected into the region.

Return flow returns fairly quickly on Saturday around the surface
high as it shifts eastward a bit. This should lead to warmer
temperatures climbing into the mid 50s to lower 60s again.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 837 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

High pressure will remain near the area over the Tennessee Valley
region the remainder of the weekend into early next week. This
will continue a notable warm up across the area. The combination
of ample sunshine and southerly winds will allow temperatures to
climb back into the 60s on Saturday. A fast- moving shortwave will
clip the region Saturday night into Sunday, bringing low (20-30%)
chances for light rain showers. Thereafter, ridging will amplify
early next week, with high temperatures returning to the mid to
perhaps upper 60s by Tuesday!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 450 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Flight weather conditions will remain VFR through ~12Z with
ceilings at or above 080agl. Lower MVFR ceilings (020-025agl)
will overspread the area by 12-15Z with isolated to scattered
SHRA developing. Ceilings will lower to IFR (005-010agl) with an
increase in SHRA activity by 19Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...17