941
FXUS64 KMOB 152354
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
654 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Now through Monday Night...

We start the period well defined low/mid level ridge of high
pressure positioned from the southwest Atlantic. westward across
the FL Peninsula into the central GUlf. A H20/H30 upper level trof
axis aligned over the central Gulf coast and was marked by a
cyclonic curvature in the cloud elements. This feature operating
on a weakly defined coastal surface boundary draped from southeast
AL/southwest GA border to down across the AL/NW FL coastal
waters, combined with more than sufficient deep layer
environmental moisture (PWAT`s 1.8 to 2.1") and daily instability
has resulted in pockets of cold cloud tops => scattering of
showers and storms. As we go through the remainder of the day, the
expectation is coverage will begin to increase over the land
zones and move/develop northward. Forecasters are beginning to see
this in radar trends in central MS. At the present time, the
environment is characterized by high CAPE and low shear, resulting
in typical summer-time ordinary, pulse type storms, which could
become strong at times contributing to locally brief strong wind
gusts and perhaps small hail upon collapse of storm centroids. We
cannot rule out a brief severe storm, but the overall threat is
low. Frequent lightning and brief, localized heavy rains are also
possible with the stronger storms. Storms lingering into the
evening are expected to weaken with the loss of instability. A
similar pattern remains in place as we open the work week on
Monday and Monday night.

Rip current risk along area beaches is low. /10

Tuesday Through Saturday...

An upper level ridge over the western Atlantic continues to nose
into the Southeast and eastern Gulf as we roll toward mid-week. A
shortwave trough to our west begins to lift out of the region as
the ridge nudges deeper into the Deep South. As ridging builds
overhead late in the week and into the weekend, rain chances will
begin to decrease and the heat will begin to crank up. In the
meantime, expect a diurnal convective pattern Tuesday through
Thursday with high rain chances each afternoon. At this point, the
highest POPs remain on Tuesday afternoon given the proximity of
the shortwave trough. Pulse thunderstorms are possible each
afternoon give ample instability and minimal shear, so we can`t
rule out a few strong storms with gusty winds and frequent
lightning being the main threats.

Beach Forecast - The rip current risk remains LOW on Tuesday and
increases to a MODERATE on Wednesday and Thursday. The latest rip
current probability guidance continues to trend toward a MODERATE
risk by Friday. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

VFR conditions will prevail outside of scattered convection this
evening and Monday afternoon. CIGs will temporarily lower to MVFR
categories with passage of any storms containing gusty surface
winds up to 40 knots, and frequent lightning. VSBYs could drop as
low as LIFR with storms containing heavy downpours. Added PROB30
groups for all of our TAF sites starting at 16.18z. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Light onshore flow to persist into the new week. Occasionally
moderate southerly flow is possible, especially in the nearshore
waters which will be influenced by the diurnal land and sea breeze
pattern. Winds and seas will likely be temporarily higher in and
near the vicinity of storms. The environment also looks to be
supportive of waterspouts in morning activity near the coast. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  89  74  90  75  89  75  91 /  20  60  40  80  20  70  10  70
Pensacola   77  88  78  88  79  88  78  89 /  20  70  40  80  20  50  20  60
Destin      79  88  79  86  81  87  80  87 /  30  70  50  80  20  50  20  50
Evergreen   71  91  72  90  72  91  72  92 /  30  60  20  80  10  70  10  60
Waynesboro  70  91  71  91  73  91  72  93 /  30  70  20  70  10  70  10  60
Camden      71  89  72  90  72  90  73  91 /  40  60  30  80  10  70  10  60
Crestview   72  90  73  90  73  91  72  92 /  20  70  30  80  10  60  10  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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