941 FXUS64 KMOB 152354 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 654 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Now through Monday Night... We start the period well defined low/mid level ridge of high pressure positioned from the southwest Atlantic. westward across the FL Peninsula into the central GUlf. A H20/H30 upper level trof axis aligned over the central Gulf coast and was marked by a cyclonic curvature in the cloud elements. This feature operating on a weakly defined coastal surface boundary draped from southeast AL/southwest GA border to down across the AL/NW FL coastal waters, combined with more than sufficient deep layer environmental moisture (PWAT`s 1.8 to 2.1") and daily instability has resulted in pockets of cold cloud tops => scattering of showers and storms. As we go through the remainder of the day, the expectation is coverage will begin to increase over the land zones and move/develop northward. Forecasters are beginning to see this in radar trends in central MS. At the present time, the environment is characterized by high CAPE and low shear, resulting in typical summer-time ordinary, pulse type storms, which could become strong at times contributing to locally brief strong wind gusts and perhaps small hail upon collapse of storm centroids. We cannot rule out a brief severe storm, but the overall threat is low. Frequent lightning and brief, localized heavy rains are also possible with the stronger storms. Storms lingering into the evening are expected to weaken with the loss of instability. A similar pattern remains in place as we open the work week on Monday and Monday night. Rip current risk along area beaches is low. /10 Tuesday Through Saturday... An upper level ridge over the western Atlantic continues to nose into the Southeast and eastern Gulf as we roll toward mid-week. A shortwave trough to our west begins to lift out of the region as the ridge nudges deeper into the Deep South. As ridging builds overhead late in the week and into the weekend, rain chances will begin to decrease and the heat will begin to crank up. In the meantime, expect a diurnal convective pattern Tuesday through Thursday with high rain chances each afternoon. At this point, the highest POPs remain on Tuesday afternoon given the proximity of the shortwave trough. Pulse thunderstorms are possible each afternoon give ample instability and minimal shear, so we can`t rule out a few strong storms with gusty winds and frequent lightning being the main threats. Beach Forecast - The rip current risk remains LOW on Tuesday and increases to a MODERATE on Wednesday and Thursday. The latest rip current probability guidance continues to trend toward a MODERATE risk by Friday. 07/mb && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 653 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 VFR conditions will prevail outside of scattered convection this evening and Monday afternoon. CIGs will temporarily lower to MVFR categories with passage of any storms containing gusty surface winds up to 40 knots, and frequent lightning. VSBYs could drop as low as LIFR with storms containing heavy downpours. Added PROB30 groups for all of our TAF sites starting at 16.18z. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 344 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Light onshore flow to persist into the new week. Occasionally moderate southerly flow is possible, especially in the nearshore waters which will be influenced by the diurnal land and sea breeze pattern. Winds and seas will likely be temporarily higher in and near the vicinity of storms. The environment also looks to be supportive of waterspouts in morning activity near the coast. /10 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 73 89 74 90 75 89 75 91 / 20 60 40 80 20 70 10 70 Pensacola 77 88 78 88 79 88 78 89 / 20 70 40 80 20 50 20 60 Destin 79 88 79 86 81 87 80 87 / 30 70 50 80 20 50 20 50 Evergreen 71 91 72 90 72 91 72 92 / 30 60 20 80 10 70 10 60 Waynesboro 70 91 71 91 73 91 72 93 / 30 70 20 70 10 70 10 60 Camden 71 89 72 90 72 90 73 91 / 40 60 30 80 10 70 10 60 Crestview 72 90 73 90 73 91 72 92 / 20 70 30 80 10 60 10 70 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob