183 FXUS64 KHUN 081805 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 105 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (This Afternoon through Tonight) Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Much more tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon (compared to yesterday). A fairly tight pressure gradient in place has resulted in some breezy 10-20 MPH WSW/SW winds this afternoon, but these winds will taper off after sunset. A couple of weak convergence boundaries were noted in the Cu field on satellite, but with not much vertical depth think that the probability of any light showers forming is very low and less than 10%. These clouds should largely diminish this evening, with mostly clear conditions prevailing overnight. The combination of clear/calm conditions and a moist boundary layer from previous rainfall will create an environment favorable for patchy fog. Have added a mention of this in the forecast after Midnight. Otherwise, another mild, but comfortable night with low temperatures falling into the mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 1108 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Our attention quickly turns to Monday as a deepening upper low barrels into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, forcing another cold front south and east into the Mid South and Tennessee Valley during the afternoon and evening hours. In addition to the front, lingering convection from an MCS that moves through OK/TX/LA overnight may still be on-going along a remnant cold pool/outflow moving across MS -- eventually working its way into northwest Alabama by the late morning. This feature could potentially trigger a few strong storms during this late morning window, but the main concern remains the afternoon which will coincide with the frontal passage and peak heating. Sufficient destabilization of the boundary layer may produce SBCAPE values between 1500-2500 J/kg, with low-level lapse rates between 7.0-7.5. Low-level shear is fairly modest, but bulk shear values up to 40-45 kts will allow for multicell clusters, organized line segments, and even a couple supercells. Damaging winds up to 60-70 MPH will be the greatest concern with this activity, with low-end severe hail and potentially a brief tornado occurring with the strongest storms. This activity should wane by the evening hours from west to east as the front pushes through the region, with any light precipitation tapering off in our eastern zones around Midnight. With the boundary to the south of the region on Tuesday, a much drier forecast will be in store for the area (save for a rogue storm or two) south of the Tennessee River in the afternoon. Northwest flow will help moderate temperatures despite the sunshine, with highs peaking in the low to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 A relatively dry continental air mass will invade the area from Tuesday into early Thursday before high pressure moves to our east. A partially closed low in the southern stream will move gradually eastward bringing increased chances for showers and storms on Thursday. Modest lapse rates but increasingly moist flow on the eastern flank of the upr low could yield upwards of 2000 J/kg of CAPE for Thursday/Friday...but shear is generally anemic with winds potentially tending to be less than ~40 kts through the whole column. Thus, pulse to perhaps multicellular convection may take place as the system could be shunted northwards well to our west, and deep layer shear does not materialize. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 MVFR conditions will continue at KHSV through mid afternoon, before clouds scatter out and lift to VFR conditions. Winds will remain gusty out of the WSW to west this afternoon, before decoupling after sunset. Some patchy fog may develop late tonight, but confidence was too low to mention in the TAF at this time. Late in the period, added a PROB30 for -SHRA that will be developing near both terminals. This activity could produce localized MVFR conditions due to reduced visibilities and/or ceilings. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP.24 SHORT TERM....AMP LONG TERM....KDW AVIATION...AMP