546
FXUS64 KHUN 241457
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
857 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 857 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

Sfc high pressure continues to influence the southeast, allowing
dry and warm conditions over the Tennessee Valley. Highs are
forecast to warm into the mid 50s under mostly clear skies this
afternoon. A trough moving through the southern Plains will
continue to move eastward throughout the day, bringing increased
cloud cover through the evening hours tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 102 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

In the last 24 hours, guidance has trended considerably drier as
the approaching trough from the west over the southern Plains digs
a little deeper into the northern Gulf of Mexico and continues to
trend slower. This translates to a dry, mostly clear, and
subsequently colder Christmas Eve night across the Tennessee
Valley for Santa (and the rest of us). In fact, with a light
easterly surface flow reinforcing some drier air at the surface,
radiational cooling should be able to bring low temperatures down
to the low to mid 30s by daybreak Christmas morning (Wednesday).
With the slower passage of the trough, what had initially seemed
like a cloudy/wet Christmas Day is trending drier (with mostly
sunny to partly cloudy conditions). This, combined with southerly
flow, will help push our highs into the lower 60s by the
afternoon.

Breezy southwest winds will gradually help to modify the air mass
as dewpoints climb into the mid 40s Christmas Night (Wednesday
night). This will allow for cloud cover and some very low (10-20%)
chances of rain showers Christmas night -- but most of the
precipitation will miss our area to the south. Thursday (Boxing
Day) will be again be mild (and a bit more humid), with highs
around the 60 degree mark once again. Dense cloud cover will
continue to push in Thursday night ahead of another approaching
trough, but any precipitation will hold off until after 06z
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 102 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

A more active and wet pattern is shaping up late this week into
the weekend -- with a continued warm/mild air mass resulting in
highs in the low to mid 60s each day. A couple of shortwaves will
lift from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley --
first during the day on Friday, bringing dense cloud cover and
medium (40-60%) chances of rain showers -- and again Friday night
(40-70% chance of rain showers and a few thunderstorms).

Finally, a more substantial trough will amplify as it shifts from
the Southern Plains into the Mid South/Ohio Valley late Saturday
into Saturday night/Sunday. There is still some appreciable
differences in the timing/evolution of this system with the
ensembles. Higher chances for rain showers (50-80%) are forecast
during this window -- and given the slower motion of the front,
some locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Storm total amounts
from Friday to Sunday are generally between 1.5" to 2.5". These
rains will largely be beneficial over given the severe drought
still on-going across the area. Still, it`s plausible some rises
on creeks and streams will occur in localized areas if we
outperform these QPF amounts.

The thermodynamic environment still appears very limited during
the late saturday to Sunday window, but do think at the very least
some elevated storms are probable -- with gusty gradient winds
also occurring along/ahead of the front. Rain chances will
diminish Sunday evening/night with the passage of the front and a
mostly sunny day will return by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period at both terminals
through the period. Scattered banks of mid-level clouds will begin
to filter into the area this afternoon/evening ahead a developing
area of low pressure well to our west.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...AMP