045
FXUS64 KHUN 200922
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
322 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated 322 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

 - Moisture returning to the area will result in low to medium
   chances of rain beginning late tonight, continuing periodically
   through Tuesday.

 - Temperatures will gradually warm over the weekend and through
   next week. Unseasonably mild conditions are expected Christmas
   Eve and Christmas Day, with highs rising into the 60s and 70s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Temperatures across north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee
early this morning are in the upper 20s to lower 30s with a few
high clouds streaming overhead. Not expecting temperatures to fall
too much more over the next few hours. Regardless, it`s still
cold out there. Make sure to bundle up if heading outside this
morning! Dry weather will continue today along with mostly clear
skies as surface high pressure remains situated over the
Appalachians. However, moisture will gradually increase through
the day and this evening as a cold front approaches the Tennessee
Valley and starts to push this high pressure to the southeast.
More on this and our next chance at rain (tonight) below; but,
after a cold morning, temperatures are forecast to warm into the
mid 50s to around 60 degrees this afternoon. In addition, it`ll be
breezy with sustained southerly winds around 10 mph and wind
gusts up to 15-20 mph. It might be a good idea to secure any loose
outdoor holiday decorations!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 1029 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

A southerly flow in place will help return deeper moisture from
the Gulf region across the Tennessee Valley. This moisture and
the approach of a cold front could bring lower end rain chances
late Saturday night into Sunday morning. With modest shear but
insignificant instability, no thunder is expected. Temperatures
will not be as cold with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s by
daybreak Sunday. As the front heads further southward, showers
should end by the early afternoon with clouds decreasing from
north to south during the course of the day, and highs rising into
the mid/upper 50s. Sun is also the first day of winter, which
begins around 908 AM.

Dry conditions should continue Sun night with low in the mid/upper
30s. More lower end chances for showers returns on Monday, as an
unsettled pattern is realized for the first portion of the work
week. Highs Mon should rise into the mid/upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 1029 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

At the beginning of the long term portion of the forecast, an
expansive sub-tropical ridge will likely stretch from the Southern
Plains across the Gulf and into the northern Caribbean. Meanwhile,
a deepening trough in the NE Pac will lead to a downstream quasi-
zonal flow pattern across much of the CONUS. Maintenance of this
pattern will result in deepening and strengthening of the sub-
tropical flow from the eastern Pac, and further northward
expansion of the ridge across much of the CONUS during this
period. The polar front, which is expected to be hugging the
northern tier of states on Monday Night/Tuesday will tend to
remain stationary, or perhaps even retreat farther northward into
southern Canada during the period. The result will be a
climatologically very mild pattern developing across large
portions of the CONUS and here in the TN Valley. Perusing the
broader ensemble suite suggests relatively good run-to-run
consistency in some of the model details during the period. If
anything, the broader suite does hint at a slight increase in
expected temps in recent model runs during the Christmas Eve and
Christmas Day forecasts, which right now, contain highs largely in
the mid 60s to lower 70s. Overall, there is generally good
agreement in the broad scale pattern expectations, and fairly
minor differences in the ensemble clusters. All of this is leading
to a relatively high confidence forecast at this time for the
holiday period. Thus, in the annual battle royale between the Cold
and Heat Mizers and who will hold influence over Christmas
weather, the odds are certainly in favor of the Heat Mizer this
Christmas. In fact, his warm dominion may spread far into the
Midwest.

Otherwise, chances for light rain will increase a little overnight
Monday and continue on Tuesday/Tuesday Night as isentropic lift
and moisture advection occur ahead of a weak Pacific front.
However, due to uncertainty in timing and where strongest ascent
and moisture advection may occur in the region, POPs were kept in
chance category. Otherwise, conditions for Christmas at this time
look to be dry and slightly breezy.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF. Surface high pressure
across the region will move over the Mid Atlantic coast during
Sat, resulting in a SE flow. Winds in the early to mid afternoon
could occasionally gusts above 15 kt. Cloud cover should increase
Sat evening, as moisture from the Gulf region, and a cold front
nears from the NW. Rain with the front is not expected until late
Sat night.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....KDW
AVIATION...RSB