173 FXUS64 KBMX 021144 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 644 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 310 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025 This AM, our satellite loop is showing generally fair skies with only some thin high cirrus across C AL, with thicker clouds present along the SRN part of the state. At the surface, ridging remains present across the Deep South. Surface ridging will slowly weaken and nudge EWD through Tue. In the upper levels, a large upper low present over ERN Canada will push EWD today and off the Atlantic Coast with ridging building behind it from the Great Lakes to LA. The shortwave rotating around the upper trough breaks off over FL by early Tue as the trough pushes EWD. The upper ridge shifts in response on Tue toward the Atlantic Coast. This all results in our NW upper flow today over C AL becoming very light/variable for today and Tue. We will continue to be rain free through the short term as ridging continues. Our airmass will continue to moderate with temperatures warmer each day. 08 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 310 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025 As a longwave trough over the northeast U.S. departs and a ridge axis advances in its wake, a shortwave trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley today/Sunday will become removed from upper- level flow and meander over the southeast U.S. through late week. This shortwave will then be nudged northeastward toward the Mid- Atlantic Coast over the weekend as a series of disturbances and a front advance from the central U.S., along the northern perimeter of a ridge centered from southern Texas into Mexico. Given the evolution of this pattern, an increase in vertical moisture content will aid the opportunity for mainly diurnally- driven showers and storms Wednesday-Friday for parts of the region. Over the weekend, it looks like we`ll become involved within westerly 500 mb flow with a front stalled in the vicinity, supporting an increase in shower and storm chances. Models suggest showers and storms developing locally but also the potential for upstream storm complexes to form and track our way, adding the potential for nighttime showers and storms. We`ll have to monitor the timing and path of these features as there are windows of weak to moderate instability with modest bulk shear that could support strong storm activity. 89^GSatterwhite && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025 Generally VFR TAFs are expected for the next 24 hours with surface ridging. The exception will be KTCL which could see some patchy ground fog for a couple of more hours before clearing. Otherwise, winds should be light/variable to calm for much of the time with minimal cloud cover. Both KEET and KMGM will have AMD NOT SKED appended to the TAF due to comms/equipment issues. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Fair weather is forecast today and Tuesday. An increase in moisture and the proximity of various weather systems will result in opportunities for showers and storms starting on Wednesday. Coverage will vary from day to day with the greatest footprint of activity currently forecast to occur during the weekend. Afternoon minimum RHs will remain above critical thresholds over the coming days with 20-foot winds averaging less than 10 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 86 61 89 67 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 86 63 89 68 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 86 65 89 70 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 88 65 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 86 65 89 69 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 86 65 88 69 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 86 64 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 86 64 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite AVIATION...08