598
FXUS64 KBMX 192254
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
454 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 453 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025

 - A gradual warming trend will commence this weekend, peaking
   around Christmas with high temperatures in the lower 70s for
   much of Central Alabama, 10-15 degrees above normal.

 - No big rainmakers are expected through Christmas, though
   periodic light showers may affect parts of the Gulf Coast
   region early in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1132 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025

GOES TPW imagery reveals a large swath of significantly drier air in
place across much of the southeast. This influx of drier air and
surface high pressure will keep us rain-free over the next couple of
days. Moisture will slowly push back into the region on Sunday as
yesterday`s front retreats north. Meanwhile, an upper trough moving
across the Great Lakes region will kick a cold front our way. The
combination of slightly increased lift and moisture, isentropic
lift in the 290-295K layer, and a H7 vort max swinging through
will warrant a low (15-25%) chance of showers on Sunday and
Monday.

Broad ridging builds in by midweek, leading to a warming trend as we
head towards Christmas. High temps climb up into the low to mid 70s
for Christmas Eve and Christmas.

95/Castillo

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 454 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025

VFR conditions and light winds will continue through the TAF
period.

87/Grantham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Over the next week, the lowest MinRHs should occur during the
afternoon hours on tomorrow and Monday, primarily across east
Alabama with percentages in the upper 20s to lower 30s. We will
see low chances (15-25%) for showers on Sunday and Monday.
Otherwise, we will remain dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     26  60  36  60 /   0   0   0  10
Anniston    29  62  40  61 /   0   0   0  10
Birmingham  32  60  43  59 /   0   0  10  20
Tuscaloosa  31  62  45  60 /   0   0  10  20
Calera      30  63  42  63 /   0   0  10  20
Auburn      34  61  41  63 /   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  32  63  41  63 /   0   0   0  10
Troy        33  63  39  66 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...95/Castillo
AVIATION...87/Grantham