203 FXUS64 KBMX 091046 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 546 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 415 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025 - A level 2 out of 5 chance for strong to severe storms on Monday as additional clusters of showers and storms develops to the west/northwest and moves across Central Alabama. Damaging straight-line winds will be the main hazard with low chance for a brief tornado - Low chance for localized flash flooding, especially for locations that have seen heavy rainfall over the past two days. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 159 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2025 As of writing, we in a bit of a convective lull as showers and thunderstorms are ongoing along the northern Gulf coast, across central MS, and back across east TX. We are expecting 2 rounds of convection across Central AL today. The first will move into the area around sunrise as a H5 vort max ejects ahead of our next shortwave. While shear and lapse rates don`t look too impressive with this first wave, a plume of higher instabilities will spread across the region from the south-southwest. The second wave of convection looks to move into the area during the afternoon hours as activity develops along a remnant outflow from the storms currently ongoing in east Texas. It remains fairly tricky to narrow in on a time frame with this second round as the latest CAMs are a few hours off from each other. We will need to monitor the trends through the day to lock in on a more accurate time. Regardless, general time looks to be mid afternoon through the evening hours. Diurnal heating will help provide better chances for strong to severe storms this afternoon. It is also likely that we see increased SRH values as the convective outflow spreads across the state. This will help support a brief tornado or two in addition to the damaging wind and large hail threat. SPC maintains a Slight (level 2 of out 5) risk for the region today. In addition to the severe threat, we will need to monitor our flash flooding potential. Recent rainfall has left our soils fairly saturated. With that said, it won`t take much for some localized flooding impacts to develop, especially if storms track over repeated area. Forecast soundings hint at a heavy rainfall threat as well with a deep warm cloud depth and PWATs around 2". WPC has included much of the CWA in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall today. Patchy fog is likely again overnight, especially for those that have seen plentiful rainfall over the last couple of days. On Tuesday, a boundary looks to move south and stall across the region with drier air working in behind it. Upper troughing will begin to push east with weak ridging attempting to build in. This will help lower rain chances as we head towards the middle of the work week. However, we hold onto some low to medium PoPs, generally across our southern areas, as moisture convergence remains maximized south of the boundary. 95/Castillo && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 159 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2025 Ridging begins to build in across the region on Wednesday as the main upper level trough axis shift eastward. The previously stalled frontal boundary should remain to our south, which should help suppress the higher rain chances to the southern half of Central AL for Wednesday. By Thursday, another trough has moved into the Great Plains, stretching into the Western Gulf. This will lead to increased advection of deep moisture across Central AL Thursday through the weekend, leading to higher rain chances. The biggest question with this activity is coverage and forcing - guidance hints at some weak shortwaves that could move through Friday into Sunday leading to higher than typical coverage for thunderstorm activity. Some of these storms could be on the stronger side, but confidence in any organized severe threat is low. We`ll likely see increasing temperatures through the end of the week with highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s and heat indices touching on triple-digits Friday through Sunday. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2025 Little change with this TAF update. Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to move into the state at this time. MGM/TCL will be the first to see this activity, followed by the remaining terminals. This first wave will last through midday. Maintained the PROB30 groups for the second wave of activity as there are some timing differences to work out. Activity will clear out of the area 00z or shortly after. MVFR/IFR ceilings are likely towards the end of the period. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... Several rounds of rain and thunderstorms are expected to move through the area today with lower chances tomorrow. The warm/moist airmass will remain in place through the next several days,keeping RHs well above critical values. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 84 65 85 60 / 70 60 20 0 Anniston 82 67 84 64 / 70 70 30 10 Birmingham 82 67 85 65 / 70 60 20 10 Tuscaloosa 82 68 86 65 / 80 60 30 10 Calera 82 68 85 66 / 80 70 30 10 Auburn 82 69 84 68 / 80 80 50 20 Montgomery 87 69 85 66 / 90 80 50 20 Troy 88 68 86 66 / 80 80 60 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...95 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...95/Castillo