819 FXUS64 KBMX 120028 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 728 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 141 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025 This afternoon. Broad mid-level troughing was continuing to deepen over much of West-Central Texas while a zonal flow prevailed over the northern portion of the country with residual roughing over much of the Eastern Seaboard. Surface high pressure was centered across far Southwest Virginia while a stationary front extended from across South Texas northeastward across Central Alabama and into Eastern North Carolina. Skies will generally remain mostly sunny across the far north with partly cloudy skies central with more clouds across the far south and southeast. Scattered (30-50%) chances for showers and thunderstorms will develop further and move northward into the far southeast counties early this afternoon and likely continue pushing further north into much of the south-central and southeast counties through mid to late afternoon. Further north and west, drier air aloft will limit convective potential. Winds will be from the southeast at 3-6 mph. High temperatures will range from the mid 80s in the higher elevations east to readings in the upper 80s far south and far west. Tonight. An upper low will continue to develop over North-Central Texas tonight while broad ridging becomes centered further east of the area over the Western Carolinas. Surface high pressure will slide further east across West-Central Virginia while the weak surface front drifts northward, extending roughly along the Interstate 20 corridor later tonight. Expect mostly clear skies over the northern third of the area overnight with partly to mostly cloudy skies over the south- central portions of the area. Shower and thunderstorm activity will become more isolated (15-35%) in coverage overnight across the far south and southeast counties. Some patchy fog may develop again late in the overnight into sunrise Thursday morning with best potential in areas that see rainfall today. Winds will be from the southeast at 2-4 mph. Low temperatures will range from the mid 60s northeast to readings near 70 southwest. Thursday. The upper low to our west looks to take on a more elongated shape during the day Thursday, extending from over Northeast Texas northeast to over Northwest Missouri. Surface high pressure will weaken as it remains across West-Central North Carolina while the weak surface front drifts further north into the Southern portion of the Tennessee Valley Region north of our forecast area. Clouds will gradually increase from the south and the west through the day Thursday as the low levels remain quite warm and moist and a few shortwave disturbances move northeast over the area. The unstable environment will support scattered (45-65%) chances for showers and thunderstorms with the better coverage across the southern portion of the area. Winds will be from the south at 4-8 mph. High temperatures will range from the mid 80s in the higher elevations east to readings near 90 far south and southwest. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 154 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025 The unusual upper-level low will slowly rotate from the Southern Plains towards the Ohio Valley from Thursday through Sunday. This will promote an active weather period with daily opportunities for showers and storms in what will likely become a period of chaotic convection in part from the sea breeze and other mesoscale boundary interactions. Maintained elevated PoPs through the extended period. When it`s not raining it will be quite humid and warm. 86/Martin Previous long-term discussion: (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 141 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2025 The surge of tropical moisture northward within southwesterly flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface will commence overnight Thursday through Friday morning. This will be in response to Central Alabama being wedged in between the approaching mid-level closed low to our west and 592 decameter ridge just off the Florida Atlantic coast. Before the closed low begins to weaken and become a mid-level trough to our northwest, I wouldn`t be surprised if we saw a chance for a few strong storms to develop by Friday afternoon as 500mb temperatures are slightly cooler and 20 to 25 knots of shear may support a few robust updrafts. With DCAPE values measuring in between 500 and 1000 J/kg on GFS forecast soundings, a few downburst-type storms may end up developing during the peak heating hours on Friday. Something to keep an eye on as we start to gather CAM forecast data over the next couple of days, and begin to apply summer convection analysis techniques. The very warm, unsettled, and tropical weather pattern will fully set in over the weekend as southwesterly flow will dominate over most of the atmospheric profile. As the 500mb trough axis moves across the Deep South, plenty of synoptic lift and divergence aloft will contribute to diurnally-driven widespread shower and storm development, aided by mesoscale boundary interactions. Warm air and moisture advection should keep most strong storm development limited as lapse rates aloft are currently advertised to be moist adiabatic. However, as PWATs rise well above 2 inches storms will be very efficient rainfall producers. To say the least, we won`t be in danger of entering into a drought anytime soon. Looking at PoPs, they`re coming in around 80 percent for both Saturday and Sunday afternoon. That doesn`t necessarily mean that the entire forecast area will be rained out for hours during those times, but there`s a high chance of at least one passing shower or storm that could put a damper on any outdoor plans. The active, tropical-like pattern will continue through early next week with high rain chances each afternoon through Tuesday. Global guidance is providing some early indications of a slightly drier but hotter pattern setting up by Wednesday and Thursday of next week with a strong 500mb ridge (594+ decameters) developing just to our south. Could we finally see our first streak of widespread 90+ degree temperature days as we approach the middle of the month? If so, we would also need to start paying attention to heat indices rising between 100 and 105 degrees with very moist surface conditions in the 7 to 10 day outlook. 56/GDG && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 702 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025 VFR conditions are expected for this evening. Afternoon diurnal convection is tapering down. There is still a small chance of a grazing TSRA in the SE part of C AL, chances are too small to mention at any terminals. MVFR conditions are possible after 9z (cigs & vis) and could last through 14z before conditions would go VFR. There is a small chance of IFR cigs in that time frame, but not confident enough to add ATTM. More afternoon diurnal convection is possible for all on Thu. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... The warm and fairly moist airmass will remain in place through the next several days. This afternoon will be the driest with min RH ranging from 40 to 50% in the northern half of the area, higher in the south. 20 ft winds will remain light and variable this afternoon, generally less than 5 mph, shifting to the south tomorrow. Moisture levels and rain chances are forecast to increase dramatically tomorrow through the end of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 65 87 67 88 / 10 50 40 70 Anniston 67 87 70 86 / 10 50 40 70 Birmingham 69 87 71 88 / 10 40 40 70 Tuscaloosa 70 89 72 88 / 10 40 30 70 Calera 67 86 71 86 / 10 40 40 70 Auburn 68 86 70 87 / 30 60 50 70 Montgomery 69 88 71 89 / 20 60 40 70 Troy 68 88 70 88 / 30 60 40 80 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....86/Martin/56/GDG AVIATION...08