994
FXUS64 KBMX 080024
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
624 PM CST Tue Jan 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1136 AM CST TUE JAN 7 2025

Low clouds that have been present over Central Alabama this morning
are dissipating from southeast to northwest. The afternoon and
evening will be mostly clear across most areas, with only passing
high clouds. Tonight is expected to begin the two-night stretch of
low 20s to upper teens lows. Winds should diminish after sunset, so
wind chill values overnight won`t be significantly below actual
temperatures, in the 15 to 22 degree range. Highs tomorrow will be
comparable to today, maybe a degree or two warmer, with low 40s
north and upper 40s southeast.

12

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 202 PM CST TUE JAN 7 2025

The long term forecast remains rather complex as we sort out the
details of our upcoming winter weather event. An upper level trough
will dig south towards the Baja coast as we wrap up the work week.
Several bouts of H5 vorticity will stream through the region,
providing ample lift aloft. At the surface, a coastal low across the
Western Gulf of Mexico will move northeast and inland over the
Northern Gulf coast. Moisture will surge across Central Alabama late
Thursday into Friday. With the cold air mass already in place, we
will see a mixed bag of wintry precip beginning late Thursday night
into Friday morning. There are still several factors to sort out to
determine precip type, amount, and timing. We are just now beginning
to get within range of some hi-res guidance so we should have more
clarification over the coming days. Overall, continuing with the
same line of thinking with more of a freezing rain threat across our
southern areas with snow across our northern counties. However,
could see a scenario where we don`t see as much freezing rain and
more snow based on select forecast soundings. A 1-2 degree
difference will play a significant role. We will need to closely
monitor the developed of a cold air wedge to out east. If that
scenario materializes, temps will likely remain below freezing
throughout the event for our northeastern counties, leading to
increased snow totals. The Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity
Index is capturing our threat pretty well with a moderate to high
chance (30-70%) of minor impacts and a low (20-30%) chance of
moderate impacts across the CWA.

Surface high pressure slides in over the weekend along with another
surge of colder air. Highs look to struggle to break out of the 40s
with lows dropping back into the upper tens to mid 20s.

95/Castillo

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CST TUE JAN 7 2025

SKC is currently present at all TAF sites, but an MVFR cloud deck is
lurking just to the northwest of TCL and BHM. Guidance is iffy on
whether or not that deck will reach those terminals as the clouds
are slowly drifting southward. Went with prevailing VFR
conditions in the TAF for now, but will monitor trends and amend
as needed. Otherwise, expect VFR to continue through this period
with passing cirrus, and a light north to northwesterly sfc wind
picking back up to around 10 kts by 17-18Z.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High pressure will provide cold and dry weather through Thursday.
An approaching storm system will bring widespread rain and a
wintry mix beginning Thursday night, lasting through the day on
Friday. Relative humidity levels drop to upper 30s to low 50s this
afternoon, but winds drop to less than 10 mph. Dry air will be in
place on Wednesday and Thursday with lower RH values. However,
winds will remain light enough to negate fire weather concerns.
Moisture levels will be on the rise through the week with min RH
values rebounding back into the 50-60% range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     19  40  17  41 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    21  42  19  42 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  22  40  19  41 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  23  42  20  43 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      23  42  22  43 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      24  45  22  45 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  23  46  22  46 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        23  46  21  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...86/Martin