871 FXUS64 KBMX 162005 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 305 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 136 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025 This afternoon. A northwest flow pattern aloft persists over the forecast area this afternoon as longwave troughing is positioned over the Eastern Seaboard while amplified ridging extends from over Northern Mexico further northward over the Central Plains. Elongated surface high pressure extends from across the Western Great Lakes southward through the Western Ohio and Tennessee River Valley Regions into the Mid-South Region. Sunny skies are forecast across the area this afternoon with northwest winds from 4-8 mph. High temperatures will range from around 70 in the higher elevations east to readings in the mid 70s across much of the southern and western portions of the area. Tonight. The longwave trough will move further offshore of the Northeast Coast tonight while the high-amplitude longwave ridging builds closer to the area, extending from over Northeast Mexico northward to over the Midwest and Mid-Mississippi River Valley Regions. Elongated surface high pressure will remain across the area overnight as it extends from Northern Michigan southward to across the Western Florida Panhandle. Look for clear skies overnight with light northeast winds from near calm up to 3 mph. Low temperatures will range from the lower 40s northeast to the mid 40s south and west. Thursday. High amplitude longwave ridging will continue to build closer from the west, extending from over the Northwest Gulf northward to over much of the Great Lakes. Surface high pressure will migrate further eastward through the day, extending from across the Mid- Atlantic Region southwest to across the Northern Florida Peninsula. Expect Mostly sunny skies on Thursday with a southeast wind developing through the day from 5-10 mph. The warming trend will continue across the area with highs ranging from the mid 70s in the higher elevations east to readings in the lower 80s across the southwest third of the forecast area. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 305 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025 Seasonably warm temperatures are forecast for a chunk of the latter portion of the 7-day forecast. Models continue to differ regarding the general weather pattern from Sunday afternoon onward, which is leading to an unclear scenario involving the timing, progression, and breadth of shower and thunderstorm activity over the multi-day period. The forecast continues to call for increased cloudiness over the weekend with the first opportunity for raindrops, for part of the area, holding off until Sunday afternoon or evening per ensembles. Through the rest of the week, a series of shortwave troughs should offer spells of showers and thunderstorms, with the timing and characteristic of each wave in a TBD status. 89^GSatterwhite && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Expect SKC conditions today and tonight followed by some high clouds increasing with time during the day Thursday. Low-level winds will be from the northwest at 2-4 kts today followed by near-calm conditions overnight and winds developing from the southeast at 4-8 kts on Thursday. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... Sunny skies are forecast with generally light surface winds from the northwest from 3-6 mph. RH values will drop into the lower 20 percent range by mid to late afternoon followed by recovery overnight. Some high clouds will move over the area on Thursday with a developing southeast wind from 5-10 mph. RH minimums will dip to near 30 percent during the mid to late afternoon hours as dry and warm conditions persist across the area. For Friday, expect RH values of 25-35 percent with winds increasing from the south at 6-12 mph. Dry conditions are forecast through at least late Sunday evening across the forecast area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 41 79 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 44 79 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 48 80 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 46 81 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 46 79 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 48 78 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 46 81 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 46 80 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite AVIATION...05