130 FXUS64 KHUN 130449 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1149 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight and Friday) Issued at 1019 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is clipping far northwestern Alabama at 03z, but will generally remain west of the area before diminishing over the next couple of hours. A few rogue showers/storms may linger along a residual outflow boundary overnight, but most of the area will remain dry. Expect partly cloudy conditions (due to lingering clouds from remnant convection) for the remainder of the night. However, there should be some breaks in these clouds and is enough to warrant a mention of patchy fog in areas that received rainfall earlier in the day. Otherwise, expect a very mild night with lows bottoming out in the lower 70s in most locations. An area of low pressure will continue to meander across the Deep South on Friday. Light southerly flow will continue to advect Gulf moisture into the area as evidenced by PWATs increase to around 1.7-1.8". Added forcing from the trough and differential heating boundaries that develop will help to generate more widespread convection later on Friday. More than sufficient instability will allow for a few strong to marginally severe storms during the peak heating of the day -- but this activity will be pulse-like in nature and fairly disorganized. Localized damaging winds will be the main concern with the strongest activity, but all storms will have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall and potentially very localized runoff/flash flooding issues. The dense cloud cover and higher rain chances (50-70%) will knock temperatures back by a few degrees, with highs remaining in the mid to upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 1019 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Convection will gradually wane Friday evening, but low chances for showers/storms were kept in the forecast overnight due to lingering outflow boundaries and a very moist environment. With the aforementioned areas of low pressure in place, expect a soggy Father`s Day weekend, with very high (70-90%) chances for showers and storms both days. While a storm or two could become strong, the main concern will be locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding with slow-moving storms in a very favorable environment for efficient rain-producing storms. PWATs will peak near 2" (99th percentile per BMX sounding climatology). It will be a very soupy air mass, with warm/humid conditions forecast. The dense cloud cover will keep temperatures in check (highs in the mid 80s), but we won`t feel any relief given the very high RH values. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 1019 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 The initial area of low pressure of will gradually shift east of the area, but we will remain in a very active pattern with zonal flow prevailing aloft. A couple additional shortwaves will bring medium chances (50-70%) for showers and thunderstorms nearly everyday next week (Monday through Thursday) as we don`t modify the warm, moist air mass. With just a touch more heating each day, highs will creep back up into the upper 80s to lower 90s, especially by midweek. Combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, this will push heat index values to just above the 100 degree mark by Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category through the period. Have included a TEMPO for brief MVFR conditions due to light fog around daybreak. Otherwise, widespread SHRA/TSRA will develop during the day on Friday and have included prevailing SHRA to the forecast after 18z, with a PROB30 for MVFR TSRA impacts late in the period. AWWs and amendments may be needed during this window. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP SHORT TERM....AMP LONG TERM....AMP AVIATION...AMP.24