130
FXUS64 KHUN 130449
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1149 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Friday)
Issued at 1019 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is clipping far northwestern
Alabama at 03z, but will generally remain west of the area before
diminishing over the next couple of hours. A few rogue showers/storms
may linger along a residual outflow boundary overnight, but most
of the area will remain dry. Expect partly cloudy conditions (due
to lingering clouds from remnant convection) for the remainder of
the night. However, there should be some breaks in these clouds
and is enough to warrant a mention of patchy fog in areas that
received rainfall earlier in the day. Otherwise, expect a very
mild night with lows bottoming out in the lower 70s in most
locations.

An area of low pressure will continue to meander across the Deep
South on Friday. Light southerly flow will continue to advect Gulf
moisture into the area as evidenced by PWATs increase to around
1.7-1.8". Added forcing from the trough and differential heating
boundaries that develop will help to generate more widespread
convection later on Friday. More than sufficient instability will
allow for a few strong to marginally severe storms during the
peak heating of the day -- but this activity will be pulse-like in
nature and fairly disorganized. Localized damaging winds will be
the main concern with the strongest activity, but all storms will
have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall and
potentially very localized runoff/flash flooding issues. The dense
cloud cover and higher rain chances (50-70%) will knock
temperatures back by a few degrees, with highs remaining in the
mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1019 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Convection will gradually wane Friday evening, but low chances for
showers/storms were kept in the forecast overnight due to
lingering outflow boundaries and a very moist environment. With
the aforementioned areas of low pressure in place, expect a soggy
Father`s Day weekend, with very high (70-90%) chances for showers
and storms both days. While a storm or two could become strong,
the main concern will be locally heavy rainfall and localized
flash flooding with slow-moving storms in a very favorable
environment for efficient rain-producing storms. PWATs will peak
near 2" (99th percentile per BMX sounding climatology). It will be
a very soupy air mass, with warm/humid conditions forecast. The
dense cloud cover will keep temperatures in check (highs in the
mid 80s), but we won`t feel any relief given the very high RH
values.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1019 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

The initial area of low pressure of will gradually shift east of
the area, but we will remain in a very active pattern with zonal
flow prevailing aloft. A couple additional shortwaves will bring
medium chances (50-70%) for showers and thunderstorms nearly
everyday next week (Monday through Thursday) as we don`t modify
the warm, moist air mass. With just a touch more heating each day,
highs will creep back up into the upper 80s to lower 90s,
especially by midweek. Combined with dewpoints in the low to mid
70s, this will push heat index values to just above the 100 degree
mark by Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category through the
period. Have included a TEMPO for brief MVFR conditions due to
light fog around daybreak. Otherwise, widespread SHRA/TSRA will
develop during the day on Friday and have included prevailing
SHRA to the forecast after 18z, with a PROB30 for MVFR TSRA
impacts late in the period. AWWs and amendments may be needed
during this window.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...AMP.24