124 FXUS65 KSLC 102156 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 356 PM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon, associated with a disturbance crossing northern Utah. Hot, dry and breezy conditions will then settle into the state later Wednesday through the next weekend. && .SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)...A very subtle disturbance is rippling across northern Utah this afternoon. This has helped to generate convection across Nevada which is moving into northwestern Utah. Given a dry subcloud layer, gusty outflow winds will be a threat before convection winds down later this evening. Meanwhile, largely diurnal convection will also continue across the spine of Utah into this evening. A more energetic shortwave trough is set to eject across southern Idaho and far northern Utah tomorrow afternoon. This fast-moving trough will bring increased southwesterly to westerly synoptic winds to the area, with the result being more widespread breezy conditions across the area. Meanwhile, increased shear and instability will result in stronger and more organized shower and thunderstorm activity tomorrow afternoon across northern Utah. The HREF ensemble mean 0-6km shear is between 30-40kt, while mean SBCAPE values are between 500-1000 J/kg. The greatest threat with the convection will be strong microburst winds, while some of the stronger thunderstorms could produce hail, although the latter will be more isolated. Otherwise, additional showers and thunderstorms area also expected across the central Utah mountains and into the eastern valleys. While outflow winds will also be a threat with these showers, the potential for strong microbursts there will be lower than for northern Utah. West-central through south-central Utah should trend drier with minimal chances for shower activity. Convection should largely end by early tomorrow evening, with decreasing winds and clearing skies through the night. .LONG TERM (After 12Z Thursday), Issued 236 AM MDT... Following this recent active period, a benign long-term forecast with respect to convection is welcomed. Strong ridging is forecast to build over the four corners which will eliminate any chance for precipitation for the entirety of the long term forecast. Additionally, this will enable temperatures to raise even further across UT and southwest WY with temperatures around 10 degrees above normal to kick off the extended forecast, gradually increasing to 15 degrees above normal by this weekend for the entire forecast area. With hot and dry conditions expected, fire weather concerns are expected to increase areawide (see fire section for more details). The concern for fire weather is amplified as we appear to have enhanced dry southwesterlies aloft which are expected to mix down to the surface beginning Thursday afternoon. Gusty afternoons with winds out of the southwest are expected to continue through the weekend as flow increases aloft due to a shortwave trough riding the northwestern periphery of the aforementioned ridge. To sum it all up, dry, hot, and windy conditions are expected through the entirety of the extended forecast. Be sure to dress appropriately if recreating outside, drink plenty of water, and limit time in the sun! && .AVIATION...KSLC...Northwesterly flow will remain in place through the remainder of the daylight hours with minimal operational concerns forecast for the terminal. Southerly drainage flow is expected to develop around 03-04Z and will persist through the overnight. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period with diurnally driven flow patterns remaining dominant through the overnight hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to generate gusty and erratic outflow wind gusts for areas near showers, but these showers are expected to decrease in coverage near sundown. Tomorrow, southwesterly winds become more prevalent across the region with an increased risk of gusty outflow winds across the northern half of Utah and southwest Wyoming. && .FIRE WEATHER...Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening hours today across mainly the mountains and western Utah valleys. These will have the potential to bring gusty outflow winds and generally isolated lightning, with a very low chance of wetting rain. Tomorrow, a weather disturbance will ripple across far northern Utah. This will bring increased west to southwest winds to the forecast area, while northern Utah will see increased shower and thunderstorm activity. Some of these showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing outflow winds in excess of 50 mph and small hail. Measurable rain will be possible with the stronger storms, but wetting rain potential remains very low. Showers and thunderstorms should wind down by early tomorrow evening, beginning a trend of drier and warm conditions that is expected to continue into early next week. Meanwhile, a breezy southwesterly flow will become established during this time, with winds that will have the potential to be strong enough to result in critical fire weather conditions in locations where fuels have cured. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ Cheng/Worster/Webber For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity