McKinney, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

394
FXUS64 KFWD 141834
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
134 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid conditions expected today and Saturday with
  isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms along and east of
  I-35 (20-40% chance).

- A complex of thunderstorms may push into parts of North Texas
  Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon (30-40% chance).

- Low rain chances (15-25%) continue into early next week with
  temperatures warming into the mid 90s by mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1232 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/
/Through Sunday/

A complex of strong to severe thunderstorms currently over Central
Oklahoma will shift east-southeast this afternoon potentially
swiping a few of our Red River counties, namely Grayson, Fannin,
and Lamar in 2-3 hours. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be
possible in the stronger segments of the line. Scattered
convection will also shift into our southeastern, Brazos Valley
counties this afternoon and evening. The stronger cores will
produce brief, heavy rainfall and lightning. Otherwise, expect a
warm, humid afternoon with highs in the low to mid 90s and peak
heat indices in the 98-105 degree range.

North and Central Texas will remain on the northeastern periphery
of a building mid-level ridge over West Texas and New Mexico
through the short-term forecast period. This will keep northerly
flow aloft and allow another thunderstorm complex to shift out of
Oklahoma toward our forecast area Sunday morning. High-resolution
guidance has come into larger agreement that this complex of
storms will push south of the I-20 corridor by midday Sunday
before dissipating during the afternoon. However, the ultimate
track of this system will be determined by its origin, so
confidence is still on the lower end regarding its placement.
Widespread severe weather is not expected, but isolated 50+ mph
wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of this
thunderstorm complex with the best chances for strong winds
residing north of the I-20 corridor. Scattered convection is
likely in our Brazos Valley counties again tomorrow afternoon and
evening. Afternoon highs tomorrow will be similar to today.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Night and Beyond/

We will have another opportunity (20-30% chance) for MCS activity
and an associated damaging wind threat late Sunday night into
Monday morning across portions of North Texas before building mid-
level heights constrain low rain chances to our far eastern
counties early next week. Temperatures will rise into the mid 90s
region-wide by Tuesday-Wednesday. A shortwave digging across the
Central Plains midweek may drop a weak front toward North Texas
potentially increasing rain chances north of I-20 in the late
Wednesday-Thursday time frame. Confidence is increasing that the
upper-ridge axis will shift over the state of Texas late in the
work week essentially ending rain chances for a large portion of
our area, minus daily seabreeze activity in our far southeast.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1232 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/
/18Z TAFs/

SCT MVFR cigs will continue to lift this afternoon with VFR and
south flow at 7-12 kts prevailing through much of the TAF period.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected across parts
of North and Central Texas later this afternoon and evening, but
this activity should largely remain SE/E/NE of the D10 sites (~20%
chance of an isolated storm within D10). A boundary will shift
northwestward out of SE Texas this afternoon potentially bringing
isolated convection into parts of Central Texas this evening.
Greatest potential for an isolated shower or storm in the vicinity
of KACT will be in between 22Z-01Z, however coverage is expected
to remain too low for a TAF mention. The rest of the overnight
should remain rain-free with MVFR likely returning to at least
Central Texas after 09Z tonight.

Looking ahead, the latest CAMs have been highlighting a
thunderstorm complex shifting out of Oklahoma into the Metroplex
toward the end of this TAF period. Confidence is too low at the
moment to include a VCTS mention after 16Z Sunday for this
potential activity, but an addition may be needed in future
forecast updates.

Langfeld

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  91  74  94  76 /  10  30  10  10   0
Waco                75  90  72  90  74 /   5  30   5  10   0
Paris               73  88  71  87  74 /  10  30  20  30   0
Denton              75  92  72  94  75 /   5  30  10  10   0
McKinney            74  91  72  92  75 /  10  30  10  20   0
Dallas              76  93  75  94  77 /  10  30  10  20   0
Terrell             73  88  72  89  74 /  10  30  10  20   0
Corsicana           74  89  74  89  75 /   5  30  10  20   0
Temple              74  91  72  92  74 /   5  30   5  10   0
Mineral Wells       74  93  72  96  74 /   0  20   5  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$