754 FXUS65 KLKN 080929 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 229 AM PDT Sun Jun 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warming trend through Tuesday * Shower and thunderstorm chances begin to shift back north Sunday with a 10% to 25% chance of precipitation along and south of US-50 * Precipitation chances increase across Northern Nevada Monday into mid week && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Sunday) Issued at 142 AM PDT Sun Jun 8 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The upper level pattern over the west coast continues to feature high pressure off the Pacific NW coast and a low pressure system sitting off the central CA coast on Sunday. By late Sunday afternoon the LPC to the southwest of the area will migrate far enough onshore over central CA to expose its eastern flank to southern and central NV. This will push the persistent boundary draped over central/southern NV north increasing vorticity and moisture availability enough over the area to promote better convective chances Sunday evening. How far north this boundary push occurs will determine how far into northern NV convective initiation is possible Sunday evening. Confidence is high of an increasing likelihood of isolated thunderstorms along and south of US-50 with somewhat less confidence of convective chances further north. Despite better convective chances Sunday will be the warmest day of the weekend with expected highs in the area pushing well into the 80s and even 90s in some locations. Sunday night into Monday the low pushes further east into UT/AZ as the ridge to the northwest sets up over the western CONUS early in the week. Model guidance depicts the ever present boundary and enough moisture availability over central NV combined with diurnal heating processes to create afternoon convection over central NV Monday afternoon. A weak shortwave riding the ridged flow to the north and northwest will skirt the northern border of the state Monday evening increasing precipitation chances over northern NV Monday evening into Tuesday. The warming trend will continue into the week as the ridge maintains position over the Great Basin and dominates the weather pattern this week. High temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s on Tuesday with a few small (<30%) chances for an isolated shower near the Oregon/Idaho border. Similarly low shower chances continue through Wednesday afternoon as a weak trough quickly passes through northern Nevada. Shower chances drop to negligible (below 10%) by Wednesday evening and look to remain that way through the end of the forecast. Cooler temperatures in northern Nevada on Wednesday due to the trough. Highs will be in the upper 80s in the north and mid 90s in the south. This pattern looks to continue through the end of the forecast period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Model agreement continues to support increasing likelihood of convective development over central NV Sunday afternoon and evening mainly south of I-80. NBM, however, continues to limit convective development in grids mainly due to an inability to account for moisture availability. To rectify this a model blend of GFS/NAM/ECMWF/SREF was used to enhance PoPs grids for both Sunday and Monday PM timeframes. Wx grids now feature a more accurate depiction of isolated convection over central NV for both Sunday and Monday afternoons. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) VFR conditions are expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours. A 15-30% chance of thunderstorms are expected across portions of central Nevada Sunday afternoon and evening, including KELY and KTPH. Variable winds with gusts up to 35 kts are possible due to downdrafts and strong outflow winds from nearby storms. AMD NOT SKED at KTPH due to unstable communications. && .FIRE WEATHER... A low pressure system over central CA contributes enough moisture to interact with a stalled boundary over the region to increase dry thunderstorm activity for zones 425/426/427 Sunday evening. Thunderstorm chances are best along and south of US-50 with lesser likelihood of storms to the north for zones 424/438/469 through Sunday evening. On Monday dry thunderstorms are again possible in the same locations. Monday night a weak system skirting the northern border will increase precipitation chances for zones 437//438/469/570 into Tuesday. Outside of isolated thunderstorm activity winds are not expected to be a factor early in the week. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...99/94 AVIATION...90 FIRE WEATHER...99