Ely, Nevada 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

698
FXUS65 KLKN 090922
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
222 AM PDT Mon Jun 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

 * 15-35% chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday
   and Tuesday afternoon with light precipitation amounts.

 * Above normal temperatures in the upper 80s and 90s.

 * Areas of Moderate HeatRisk this week.


&&


.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Monday)
Issued at 141 AM PDT Mon Jun 9 2025

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A weak surface boundary remains draped across central Nevada,
which will be the impetus for scattered shower and thunderstorms
once again Monday afternoon along the US 50 and I-80 corridors
(15-20% chance for thunder). Precipitable water values near 150%
normal for early June are also contributing to afternoon
instability with max CAPE values approaching 500 J/kg. Those with
outdoor recreational plans should monitor conditions, taking
shelter for thunderstorms that do occur.

Areas of Moderate/Orange HeatRisk values on Monday and Tuesday as
above normal temperatures continue with highs in the upper 80s and
lower 90s. Those sensitive to the heat should avoid strenuous
outdoor activities during the afternoon and everyone should stay
hydrated. Use appropriate sun protection and take breaks as
needed.

A shortwave trough and cold front clip the far northern border
with Oregon and Idaho Wednesday afternoon with a 20% chance for
thunderstorms, otherwise the warm conditions continue. Long-range
ensemble cluster scenarios all in support of upper-level
troughing moving closer to the Pacific Northwest Coast, with
southwest flow aloft across the Great Basin and dry conditions
with precipitable water values dropping below normal. Winds will
also be on the increase as the center of the high pushes off to
the east and southwest flow aloft develops. Wind gusts increase to
25 to 30 mph Wednesday through Saturday.


 FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Low confidence in timing and coverage in showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon through Wednesday. High confidence in above normal
temperatures and HeatRisk. Ensemble disagreement grows this
weekend with how far east the developing longwave trough across
the Pacific Northwest intrudes into the western U.S. A majority
of long-range ensemble clusters maintain a dry forecast this
weekend.

&&


.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals over the next 24
hours. Increased instability will lead to a 15-35% chance of
thunderstorms across portions of central Nevada and a 10-20% in
northern Nevada Monday afternoon and evening, including near KEKO,
KELY and KTPH. Variable winds with gusts up to 35 kts are
possible due to downdrafts and strong outflow winds from nearby
storms.

AMD NOT SKED at KTPH due to unstable communications.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

A stalled boundary over the region keeps dry thunderstorms in the
forecast Monday afternoon for zones 424/425/426/427. A lesser
chance of thunderstorms exists for zones 469/470/438 both
afternoons as well. On Tuesday dry thunderstorms are possible in
all fire zones. By midweek a storm system to the north will skirt
the northern NV border increasing shower and thunderstorm activity
for northern portions of 438/439/469/470 though the rest of the
region looks to remain dry into the weekend. Thunderstorm activity
Monday and Tuesday will keep RH values above 15% for all zones.
Beyond Wednesday as precipitation chances become scarce afternoon
RH values will resume normal dry level at and below 15%. Well
winds in and around thunderstorms will be gusty and erratic and
times sustained strong winds and winds gusts are not anticipated
this week for any zone.

&&


.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...84
AVIATION...90
FIRE WEATHER...99