New London, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

054
FXUS61 KOKX 150231
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1031 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the northeast as a frontal wave
passes east tonight. The high will continue to influence the
area into early next week as it works slowly out into the North
Atlantic. A warm front begins to approach on Tuesday and passes
through on Wednesday. A cold front then follows for Thursday
night. High pressure then takes control for Friday and Saturday
with only a weak cold front passing through Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The steady light rain has ended, but there could be a few pockets
of light rain or sprinkles overnight. Will maintain a slight
chance of light rain and/or sprinkles. High pressure centered
near Nova Scotia will build into the area tonight behind the
departing low. This will bring in some drier through the night.
This should keep Father`s Day dry, but with plenty of cloudy
clover. Model time height cross sections show mid level dry air
with deep moisture below 700 mb. There could be enough drying
for some peaks of sun in the afternoon across eastern CT and
eastern LI.

Lows tonight will in the mid to upper 50s for much of the area,
but around 60 for the NYC metro. Highs Sunday will be in the 60s
to around 70. Stayed with the warmer NBM as locations on Saturday
overachieved for those locations where the rain stopped. Airmass
should be very similar, minus the rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak high pressure will remain in control even as the center
of the high gradually works east out into the North Atlantic.
There will remain plenty of low-level moisture with mostly
cloudy conditions lingering for all but eastern LI and SE CT,
where there could be breaks in the cloud cover. A weak easterly
flow will continue as well with high pressure across the area
and a stalled frontal boundary to the south over the Mid
Atlantic states.

Lows Sunday night will change little in the mid to upper 50s,
except around 60 for the NYC metro. Highs Monday will begin
there gradual uptick heading into the upcoming week, around 70
for most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak riding aloft Monday night into Tuesday as the h5 flow gets
amplified by a shortwave shifting in to the Ohio Valley. Most of the
time is expected to be dry as the mean ridging aloft should help
offset any subtle PVA, but left in a slight chance of an afternoon
shower across the western half of the forecast area as per NBM. The
warm front then moves through during the day Wednesday with rain
chances for both Tuesday night due to lift ahead of the front, and
for Wednesday with frontal passage itself, followed by increasing
instability later in the day.

Global models still disagree regarding when of an amplifying h5
trough axis shifts through within the Thursday night-Friday time
frame. GFS has slowed down noticeably in this regard over the past
24 hours, with ECMWF and Canadian more consistently showing the axis
shifting through during Friday morning. Not surprisingly, LREF
ensemble clusters therefore lean toward the EPS/CMCE camp over GEFS.
Associated cold front is therefore still slated for a Thursday night
passage, but before then, a pre-frontal trough may act as a focus
for convective initiation in an increasingly unstable air mass. As
such, NBM has expanded likely PoPs (60-70%) into most of the Lower
Hudson Valley and adjacent spots for Thursday afternoon/early
evening. Potential shear and CAPE would lead to the chance of at
least strong thunderstorms. Too early in the game to have much
confidence in the severe wx potential, but something to watch.
Leaned more toward the 25th percentile NBM for highs on Thursday for
most spots, which is still warmer than the deterministic numbers. h8
temps progged at 18-19C without too much convective debris should
allow for low-mid 90s in the typically warmest spots. This coupled
with dewpoints around 70 could have some heat impacts.

High pressure would then be the dominant feature for Friday and
Saturday with only perhaps a weak cold front or trough moving
through during Friday night. Cold pool aloft on Friday could help
trigger an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High
temperatures both days in the 80s and about 3-5 degrees above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A stationary front will remain to the south of the terminals
through Sunday. High pressure builds towards the terminals from
the northeast through Sunday.

Mainly MVFR through the TAF period. A few pockets of IFR are
possible tonight, mainly near the coast. There could be a few
pockets of light rain or sprinkles at times tonight, especially
near the coast. Conditions will likely improve to VFR Sunday
afternoon, possibly mid to late morning, across southern
Connecticut and portions of the Lower Hudson Valley. Cannot
completely rule out improvement to VFR at NYC and Long Island
terminals Sunday afternoon.

NE winds around 10 kt or less through the TAF period.

    NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low chance of IFR ceilings tonight.

Improvement to VFR possible Sunday afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night - Monday: MVFR possible.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. slight chance of showers late day into the
night, with a chance of MVFR to IFR.

Wednesday - Thursday: Mostly VFR. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA remains up for the ocean waters tonight with NE flow at 15
to 20 kt and gusts up to 25 kt. Seas will build to around 5 ft.
The flow relaxes some the second half of the night. It is
possible that 5 ft seas linger a bit longer into Sunday morning.
Confidence remains low. Otherwise, sub SCA conditions expected
through Monday.

Winds and seas remain below SCA levels across all waters Monday
night through at least Thursday morning. SW winds pick up in the
afternoon ahead of a cold front, with gusts possibly up to 25 kt on
the ocean - lasting into the evening. Ocean seas could reach 5 ft
Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of the week.

Next chance for impacts would be Thursday into Thursday night with
scattered thunderstorms. The airmass is moist, but the anticipated
speed of the cells would mitigate potential rain amounts. With that
said, there`s still the potential of at least minor urban/poor
drainage flooding.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip current risk at ocean beaches on Sunday
with an E-SE wave component around 4 ft at 6s. The rip current
risk is low on Monday and the E-SE wave component subsides to
around 3 ft at 7s.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...