509 FXUS66 KMTR 170009 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 509 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 214 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Quiet weather this week with a gradual warm up expected Tuesday and Wednesday, with a temperatures gradually falling back to near normal or slightly below normal for the end of the week and weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 214 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025 A weak upper level trough continues to track across the PacNW and northern CA today, with upper level ridging beginning to build in for Tuesday. This will be the start of a brief warming trend putting us closer to our seasonal highs for Tuesday. The forecast challenge for this period will be trying to figure out the depth of the marine layer and the expansion of the stratus. Guidance has it varying between 1000-1700ft for the period, with the best chances for stratus redeveloping along the San Mateo and Central Coast. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 214 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025 A weak upper level trough continues to track across the PacNW and northern CA today, with upper level ridging beginning to build in for Tuesday. This will be the start of a brief warming trend putting us closer to our seasonal highs for Tuesday. The forecast challenge for this period will be trying to figure out the depth of the marine layer and the expansion of the stratus. Guidance has it varying between 1000-1700ft for the period, with the best chances for stratus redeveloping along the San Mateo and Central Coast. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 214 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Upper level ridging holds through Wednesday with the next hint of height falls occuring late Wednesday into Thursday. An upper level low is slated to slide down the western Canadian cost and enter the PacNW for the weekend. This will lead to a period of troughiness and temperatures falling to near normal or just below normal. Expect the summer time stratus to return, with the fine tuning of its arrival occuring as we get closer to the later portion of the work week and weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1028 AM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Coastal stratus eroding nicely across the region this morning and should be clearing to VFR for the rest of the day. Exceptions may be isolated coastal terminals such as HAF, which may end up with a mixed bag today. Expecting most terminals to remain VFR through tonight as dry air sufficient enough to mix out the clouds intrudes into the marine layer. Gusty NW winds this afternoon as a shortwave trough starts to move through the region. Vicinity of SFO...Once stratus clears this morning, VFR is anticipated for the rest of the period. Gusty NW winds this afternoon through the San Bruno gap, potentially in excess of 30 kts and up to 35 kts. Winds diminish overnight. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...A bit slower clearing down along the Monterey Bay this morning, but still expecting a VFR afternoon. Breezy diurnal onshore flow and a marginal return of stratus expected tonight. Low confidence on if tonight`s stratus will be enough coverage to constitute a CIG or not. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 508 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025 VFR through the TAF period. Moderate to gusty winds last into the early night before reducing. Expect mostly light winds through the night. Some spotty cloud cover forms along the coast and Monterey Bay overnight, but not enough to fill over any of the TAF sites. Light winds linger into the late morning and early afternoon before moderate to gusty winds return again. These winds look to reduce again into Tuesday night. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Stronger west- northwest winds with gusts around 35 kts linger into the night before reducing and cutting off the gusts. Winds reduce further into early Tuesday but will become breezy into the late morning. Gusty winds arrive mid Tuesday afternoon, peaking around 33 kts, but reduce again into that night. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Expect winds to become light into the late evening and early night, and stay light through late Tuesday morning. Moderate west to northwest winds arrive in the late morning across the Monterey Bay, with gustier conditions affecting SNS into the mid afternoon. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 508 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Expect breezy to gusty northwest winds along with moderate to rough seas through the week and into the weekend. Gale force gusts will occur near the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and Point Sur. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0- 10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea