509
FXUS66 KMTR 170009
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
509 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 214 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025
Quiet weather this week with a gradual warm up expected Tuesday and
Wednesday, with a temperatures gradually falling back to near normal
or slightly below normal for the end of the week and weekend. &&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025
A weak upper level trough continues to track across the PacNW and
northern CA today, with upper level ridging beginning to build in
for Tuesday. This will be the start of a brief warming trend putting
us closer to our seasonal highs for Tuesday. The forecast challenge
for this period will be trying to figure out the depth of the marine
layer and the expansion of the stratus. Guidance has it varying
between 1000-1700ft for the period, with the best chances for
stratus redeveloping along the San Mateo and Central Coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025
A weak upper level trough continues to track across the PacNW and
northern CA today, with upper level ridging beginning to build in
for Tuesday. This will be the start of a brief warming trend putting
us closer to our seasonal highs for Tuesday. The forecast challenge
for this period will be trying to figure out the depth of the marine
layer and the expansion of the stratus. Guidance has it varying
between 1000-1700ft for the period, with the best chances for
stratus redeveloping along the San Mateo and Central Coast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025
Upper level ridging holds through Wednesday with the next hint of
height falls occuring late Wednesday into Thursday. An upper level
low is slated to slide down the western Canadian cost and enter the
PacNW for the weekend. This will lead to a period of troughiness and
temperatures falling to near normal or just below normal. Expect the
summer time stratus to return, with the fine tuning of its arrival
occuring as we get closer to the later portion of the work week and
weekend. &&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1028 AM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025
Coastal stratus eroding nicely across the region this morning and
should be clearing to VFR for the rest of the day. Exceptions may
be isolated coastal terminals such as HAF, which may end up with a
mixed bag today. Expecting most terminals to remain VFR through
tonight as dry air sufficient enough to mix out the clouds
intrudes into the marine layer. Gusty NW winds this afternoon as a
shortwave trough starts to move through the region.
Vicinity of SFO...Once stratus clears this morning, VFR is
anticipated for the rest of the period. Gusty NW winds this
afternoon through the San Bruno gap, potentially in excess of 30
kts and up to 35 kts. Winds diminish overnight.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...A bit slower clearing down along the
Monterey Bay this morning, but still expecting a VFR afternoon.
Breezy diurnal onshore flow and a marginal return of stratus
expected tonight. Low confidence on if tonight`s stratus will be
enough coverage to constitute a CIG or not.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 508 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025
VFR through the TAF period. Moderate to gusty winds last into the
early night before reducing. Expect mostly light winds through the
night. Some spotty cloud cover forms along the coast and Monterey
Bay overnight, but not enough to fill over any of the TAF sites.
Light winds linger into the late morning and early afternoon before
moderate to gusty winds return again. These winds look to reduce
again into Tuesday night.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Stronger west-
northwest winds with gusts around 35 kts linger into the night
before reducing and cutting off the gusts. Winds reduce further into
early Tuesday but will become breezy into the late morning. Gusty
winds arrive mid Tuesday afternoon, peaking around 33 kts, but
reduce again into that night.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Expect winds to
become light into the late evening and early night, and stay light
through late Tuesday morning. Moderate west to northwest winds
arrive in the late morning across the Monterey Bay, with gustier
conditions affecting SNS into the mid afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 508 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025
Expect breezy to gusty northwest winds along with moderate to
rough seas through the week and into the weekend. Gale force
gusts will occur near the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and
Point Sur.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay-SF Bay N
of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-
10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to
Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
Blancas 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock
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