Mariposa, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

226
FXUS66 KHNX 232300
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
Issued by National Weather Service San Diego CA
400 PM PDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.UPDATE...
Aviation Section Updated.

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.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A weak disturbance crossing the region on today will allow
for afternoon convection across the Sierra Nevada from Yosemite
down to Tulare County.

2. Warming trend beginning today as temperatures return to
triple-digit values across the San Joaquin Valley later in the
week.

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.DISCUSSION...
A weak disturbance is crossing the region today as showers and
possible thunderstorms will be seen across the Sierra Nevada.
While the disturbance will have little effect on the winds and
temperatures over the region, it will be enough dynamic lift and
instability to generate afternoon showers and thunderstorms
from Yosemite to Kings Canyon. After Today, zonal flow and weak
ridging will allow for a slow warm-up with ever better chances
of reaching 100 degrees late in the week.

Ensemble Probability of Thunder (PoT) will grow to nearly 20%
on Monday across the Sierra Nevada during the weak disturbances
passage. Elsewhere, PoT will remain at near zero values during
the week. The Sierra Nevada Crest will also drop to very low
percentages as the disturbance exits the region on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Afterward, the region will be dominated by a
developing ridge pattern as dry conditions prevail.

Temperatures will start a slowing warming trend and begin
reaching toward triple digit values later this week. The first
hint toward 100 degree temperatures will be seen on Wednesday as
isolated favored locations register with 10%-30% Probability of
Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 100 degrees. By Thursday, the PoE
grows to near 50% which increases confidence is reaching triple-
digit values. Long range ensemble analysis does show a stronger
ridge pattern late next weekend to improve the probabilites of
reaching 100 degrees. While long range ensemble solutions do
not hint towards any strong heat-waves, the potential of near
triple-digit temperatures exist to keep Central California on
the warm side for much of the week


&&


.AVIATION...
0Z Update:

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours across the
Central California Interior. Clouds building over the Sierra
Nevada with a few showers being observed. A 10%-20% chance of
thunderstorms will exist from Yosemite to Kings Canyon through
06Z.

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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.



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.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

public...Molina
aviation....JPK

weather.gov/hanford