085 FXUS65 KREV 142124 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 224 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy afternoon winds persist through much of the upcoming week, with potential for longer periods of gusty winds on Monday. * Typical June temperatures and dry weather prevail through Tuesday, with moderate HeatRisk returning by Wednesday and Thursday. * Stronger winds and cooler conditions appear to return by the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... A weak shortwave trough will be passing through the north of our area this weekend. This is leading to breezy west to southwest winds, high clouds and near seasonal temperatures for mid-June. The main concern continues to be those afternoon wind speeds generally between 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph, while wind prone areas and ridges gust to 30-40 mph. There is a 15-30% chance of gusts exceeding 35 mph in most places, while Reno has a 50-55% chance. The strongest winds will be expected in areas south of US-50 through Sunday. By Monday, a deeper upper level trough and its associated cold front pushes through the PacNW and the Great Basin. Therefore, expect stronger winds and slightly cooler temperatures, about 3 to 5 degrees lower. Winds will start from the southwest and slowly turn through the day to the northwest. Gusts will be in the 25-35 mph range with a 40-60% chance of exceeding 35 mph. Stronger winds are very likely on wind prone areas and over mountain ridges. The overlap of gusty winds along with low relative humidity brings elevated to critical fire weather conditions through most of the area, especially for western NV. More info can be found below in the Fire Weather Section. A few ensemble members are showing some convection over far northwestern NV and northeastern CA near the Oregon border, resulting in a 5-10% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Weak ridging returns Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will start cool on Tuesday behind the front, but quickly pick up by Wednesday. Afternoon highs will be in the mid-upper 90s across western NV and NE CA valleys, while the Sierra rises to the upper 70s and 80s. The lightest winds of the week are expected on these days too. For the second half of the week, models continue to hint at the approach of another, although stronger upper level system. Winds will start to increase as early as Thursday afternoon, while NBM guidance highlights Friday as the day with the strongest winds of the week. Even though, this is far down the line, there is potential for another day with strong winds and critical fire weather conditions. -HC && .AVIATION... VFR conditions continue through the foreseeable future. Winds will be the main concern. Winds will be light and VRB overnight and early morning, then between roughly 18Z-03Z become from the west and southwest 10-15 kts and gusting to 25 kts. Stronger winds are very likely on Monday. -HC && .FIRE WEATHER... Periods of elevated to near critical conditions are expected this afternoon and tomorrow. However, conditions will be either brief or too isolated to be of major concerns at the moment. Still the main area of concern this weekend will be in the vicinity of the Sierra Front down to eastern Mineral and western Mono below 7000 feet. An upper level system and its associated front bring breezy to windy conditions. These winds in conjunction with very low relative humidity during the afternoon and evening hours bring several hours of critical conditions. The main areas affected will be zones 420, 421 and 429 in NV. Nearby zones will have elevated to near critical conditions too, but the duration appears to be brief. Regardless, strongest winds exceeding 30 mph are expected in the late afternoon and evening, which overlaps with the driest part of the day. For the aforementioned reasons we have a Fire Weather Watch in effect for Monday between 1 & 11 PM. Areas near the OR border are wetter, so the concern for winds/humidity is less. However, there is a low risk for thunderstorms (around 5%) in the late afternoon. Conditions improve on Tuesday as the system leaves the region and winds become generally light. -HC && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening NVZ420-421-429. CA...None. && $$