087 FXUS65 KREV 231858 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1158 AM PDT Mon Jun 23 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Cooler than average temperatures with overall dry conditions continue through Tuesday. * There is a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Sierra from the Tahoe Basin southward through tomorrow. * Temperatures return to seasonal averages by mid-week, then rise to above average by the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... * For today into Tuesday, an upper level trough will slowly move eastward through the Great Basin. With the low in place (allowing for larger scale lift) and increasing instability (cooling from aloft, orographic lift) there is a 10-30% chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, primarily from ~2 PM to 7 PM. Main impacts will be erratic gusts up to 45 mph and brief heavy rainfall. Temperatures today and Tuesday remain below average for the date. We`ll see mostly 80s in western NV, eastern Lassen, and lower Mono counties; while eastern Sierra communities are in the 70s with 60s on the peaks. * The aforementioned low kicks out early Wednesday with near-zonal flow aloft. A quick moving trough then brushes northern NV/OR border on Thursday. This feature will not have much impact on temperatures, which will increase back to seasonal readings for late June. However, we`ll see a brief uptick in winds Thursday afternoon. This will lead to a few hours of elevated fire weather concerns during the afternoon, mostly for the Sierra Front and eastern Lassen County. * As we head into the weekend and start of next week, ensembles are advertising a larger scale ridge amplifying over the east Pacific/Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, a weak upper low undercuts the high and slowly pushes into California. With synoptic warming, temperatures will increase back above seasonal averages by Friday. We`ll also have a return of the Zephyr winds each afternoon. -McKellar && .AVIATION... * VFR conditions continue along with light and VRB winds. Winds become generally from the north and east with speeds up to 10 kts and gusts up to 20 kts after 18Z. Winds subside around 03Z. Storm chances continue around 10-20% for Sierra terminals this afternoon and tomorrow. * There is less than 10% chance for FG/FZFG through 15Z for KTRK. Chances for FG may increase tonight, if rain or storms develop in the Martis Valley this afternoon. -HC/McKellar && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$