750
FXUS66 KMTR 152305
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
405 PM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1254 PM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Continued quiet conditions through early week. Slight warming
slated for the middle of the week with cooler temps and potential
offshore wind by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1254 PM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Gorgeous couple of days with temps right around or slightly below
seasonal averages. A transient shortwave trough will act to cool
temps a couple of degrees to start the work week. Other than that,
no major changes or impacts in the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1254 PM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Warming trend into Wednesday looks to bring temps around or a few
degrees above seasonal averages as high pressure builds over Baja
ridging up into the PNW. Wednesday does look to be the peak of the
warming before a deeper and potentially more impactful trough
moves in by the end of the week. Still evaluating specifics, but
there appears to be at least a slight risk of offshore wind in the
North Bay by next weekend. With grasses very dry and larger fuels
not far behind, this certainly looks like a window for more
elevated fire weather concerns. Stay tuned for updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 405 PM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Currently VFR at all terminals with the exception of HAF reporting
MVFR visibility, I expect this to clear shortly though as stratus
continues to clear off the coast. Heights are expected to rise, as a
result the marine layer is expected to compress which will generally
translate to low-end MVFR to high-end IFR ceilings.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow. Westerly
winds will prevail through the TAF period with gusts up to 30 knots
to be expected. There`s a 60% probability for sub-VFR ceilings to
impact the terminal tonight with most guidance showing low-end MVFR,
but the risk for IFR is there as well. High confidence in VFR
prevailing by late-morning alongside strong and gusty westerly winds.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with westerly flow at MRY and
VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. High confidence in IFR ceilings
impacting the terminals again tonight. VFR and westerly winds will
prevail by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1024 AM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Surface high pressure will support a fresh to strong
northwesterly breezes with moderate seas through mid-week. Gale
force gusts are likely near the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes
and Point Sur. An eastward passing upper level trough combining
with a strengthening onshore pressure gradient will result in
gusty onshore winds across the bays Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 556 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

No real notable changes to the ongoing forecast fire weather wise.
Still highlighting elevated fire weather conditions across the
interior Central Coast. While not in our forecast area, a decent
veg fire developed and spread quickly to over 1k acres in SLO.
This could have easily happened in San Benito or Monterey
counties.

Observations over the last 24 hour and predicted weather continue
to show marine layer influence keeping fire weather conditions in
check for lower elevations and coastal areas. However, about
roughly 2k feet and farther inland conditions remain mild and dry
both day and night. On top of that is onshore flow leading to
breezy conditions each afternoon. Some of the winds are being
enhanced by topography leading to gustier flow in the valleys,
gaps, passes with 20-35 mph gusts.

Simply put, if you`re recreating outdoors, be one less spark in
these elevated fire weather conditions.

MM

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
     Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay
     Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-Pt
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM Monday to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...RGass

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