694
FXAK69 PAFG 090249 CCA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
649 PM AKDT Sun Jun 8 2025

...Updated Fire Weather and Extended...

.SYNOPSIS...
Showery conditions continue in the north Central and Eastern
Interior Sunday. Pressure builds into the region Monday through
midweek along with a temperature rise across the entire region
through the end of the week. Showery conditions return to the West
Coast Tuesday.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Cold temperatures Sunday with highs in the 50s increase through
  the week with Monday highs near 60, Tuesday highs in the mid
  60s, and reaching near 70 Wednesday.

- Frost possible in valleys Monday morning where skies clear. See
  Special Weather Statement for details.

- Showery conditions diminish Sunday and Monday as higher
  pressure builds.

- Isolated thunderstorms possible amongst scattered showers each
  afternoon in the far southeastern Interior through Wednesday.

- Gusty westerly winds through Sunday evening.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Generally clear skies along the coast today with clouds in the
  Western Interior.

- Cool conditions continue Sunday highs in the 40s along the coast
  and low 50s in the Western Interior. Temperatures warm through
  the week with highs near 50 along the coast and in the 60s in
  the Interior by Tuesday.

- Showers and southerly winds return to the West Coast Tuesday as
  a low moves into the Bering Sea. Heavier showers expected along
  southern shores of the Seward Peninsula and Chukchi Sea Coast.
  Southerly winds through the Bering Strait up to 30 mph and 15 to
  25 mph elsewhere. Showers will be all rain.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Light snow showers continue in the Brooks Range through the end
  of the day Sunday.

- A warming trend is expected through the end of the week. Highs
  in the low to mid 30s Sunday rise to the mid to upper 30s Monday
  and to near 40 Tuesday and to the upper 40s to near 50 by the
  end of the week.

- Winds weaken through the day Sunday and turn southerly by Monday
  and increase again to 15 to 20 mph late Tuesday. Southerly flow
  will limit low clouds and fog Wednesday through the end of the
  week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 533 dam upper level low over the Western Interior moves south to
the Gulf of Alaska by Monday night. Ridging builds into the West
Coast and Northern Alaska as the low moves south. The building
ridge will push showers out of the region and cause a warming
trend through the end of the week. The Gulf of Alaska low will
slow the building of the ridge and allow for some showers and
possible thunderstorms to remain in the Southeast Interior through
Wednesday. Another low approaches the West Coast Tuesday and
brings additional showers and southerly winds to the coast.

Model confidence begins to waver at this point as different
solutions begin to present themselves for how the low interacts
with the ridge. The two main solutions are that the low sits in
the Bering Sea and slowly fills in through the end of the week or
that the low rides over the top of the ridge and along the Arctic
Coast Friday and Saturday. If the former, then showery conditions
and southerly winds along the West Coast will slowly improve
through the end of the week. If the latter, then there will be
heavy showers moving into the Southwestern to Southcentral Brooks
Range and bring showery conditions and increased winds to the
North Slope. Higher temperatures will keep precipitation as rain
for both solutions though.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated at 646 PM AKDT Sun June 8 2025

Unusually cool conditions continue Sunday before building pressure
and a warming trend begins Monday and lasts through the rest of
the week. Showery conditions continue in the north Central and
Eastern Interior Sunday with decent chances of wetting rains.
Interior highs rise to the mid 60s by Tuesday and near 70
Wednesday. With this rise comes lowering minimum RHs to the upper
20s to lower 30s. Breezy westerly winds Sunday afternoon diminish
overnight into Monday and then stay relatively calm. Showery
conditions return to the West Coast Tuesday.

Update: A major pattern shift develops late week and weekend as
ridging aloft builds over the Mainland and temps rise in response,
with significant warming and drying over the Interior expected, with
moderate proabbilities of 80 degree temps over the Interior this
weekend.

- Ahsenmacher

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The only breakup concern remaining is the Sag River. Temperatures
return to normal Monday and remain steady through Wednesday.
Warming is expected Thursday through end of next week with
temperatures reaching into the 50s in the Sag Basin. This should
be enough to finally get breakup started up there, and we`ll be
monitoring conditions as they evolve along with the Alaska-Pacific
River Forecast Center.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
A low in the Bering Sea interacts with a ridge in the Interior.
The ridge will persist and keep conditions in the Interior warmer
and drier. The low will keep showers and southerly flow along the
West Coast going through the end of the week. There is a chance
for showery conditions to return to the western North Slope late
this week if the low rides over the ridge.

Update: A major pattern shift develops late week and weekend as
ridging aloft builds over the Mainland and temps rise in response,
with significant warming and drying over the Interior expected, with
moderate proabbilities of 80 degree temps over the Interior this
weekend.

- Ahsenmacher

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-817-851-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
&&

$$

Stokes