ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 210722

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A broad upper trough will encompass the central and western CONUS
   Wednesday. The strongest mid-level flow is expected to extend from
   the Southern Plains through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
   regions, and across the Pacific Northwest near the base of mid-level
   cyclone. A deeply mixed air mass will remain present over the Desert
   Southwest, while a cold front dives southward into portions of the
   Southern and High Plains. Further west across portions of NM and AZ,
   sustained westerly surface winds near 15 mph are expected where
   increasingly receptive fuels and single-digit RH will be present.
   Localized wind speeds may briefly approach or exceed 20 mph across
   southern NM Wednesday afternoon, but the probability of this
   occurring for more than 3 hours across a broad region is too low to
   introduce a Critical area at this time.

   ..Barnes.. 05/21/2024

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 202149

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0449 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

   Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

   ...Southwest into the southern High Plains...

   ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday...
   A broad large-scale trough will persist across the West, with the
   strongest midlevel flow confined to the northwestern CONUS. Along
   the southern periphery of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly
   flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed air mass from the Southwest
   into the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to locally
   critical conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly
   dry/receptive fuels across the region. 40-percent Critical
   probabilities remain in place for these days, though confidence in
   any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce
   higher probabilities at this time. 

   ...Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday...
   On Day 5/Friday, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen
   across the Southwest, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will be
   in place. Given the strengthening midlevel flow and a modest surface
   pressure gradient, critical conditions are expected on Day 5/Friday
   over northeast AZ and northwest NM. Thereafter, a robust midlevel
   jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the
   Southwest and southern High Plains on Day 6/Saturday. This will
   promote another day of dry/windy conditions across the region, with
   the best overlap of strong surface winds and low RH atop receptive
   fuels expected over southern NM, where critical conditions are
   expected. 

   Elevated to locally critical conditions will likely continue on Day
   7/Sunday, though midlevel flow will be slightly weaker than days
   prior -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time.

   ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024