U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 210722 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will encompass the central and western CONUS Wednesday. The strongest mid-level flow is expected to extend from the Southern Plains through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions, and across the Pacific Northwest near the base of mid-level cyclone. A deeply mixed air mass will remain present over the Desert Southwest, while a cold front dives southward into portions of the Southern and High Plains. Further west across portions of NM and AZ, sustained westerly surface winds near 15 mph are expected where increasingly receptive fuels and single-digit RH will be present. Localized wind speeds may briefly approach or exceed 20 mph across southern NM Wednesday afternoon, but the probability of this occurring for more than 3 hours across a broad region is too low to introduce a Critical area at this time. ..Barnes.. 05/21/2024
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 202149 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday... A broad large-scale trough will persist across the West, with the strongest midlevel flow confined to the northwestern CONUS. Along the southern periphery of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed air mass from the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels across the region. 40-percent Critical probabilities remain in place for these days, though confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. ...Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday... On Day 5/Friday, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Southwest, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will be in place. Given the strengthening midlevel flow and a modest surface pressure gradient, critical conditions are expected on Day 5/Friday over northeast AZ and northwest NM. Thereafter, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains on Day 6/Saturday. This will promote another day of dry/windy conditions across the region, with the best overlap of strong surface winds and low RH atop receptive fuels expected over southern NM, where critical conditions are expected. Elevated to locally critical conditions will likely continue on Day 7/Sunday, though midlevel flow will be slightly weaker than days prior -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024
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