ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 201932

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0232 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor
   adjustments were made with this update. Confidence in the
   development of sustained critical conditions is highest over parts
   of northeastern NM, where the surface pressure gradient will be
   tightest on the western periphery of a lee cyclone. However,
   near-normal ERCs across this area (owing to rainfall during the last
   couple weeks) limits confidence in large-fire potential --
   precluding Critical highlights at this time.

   ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024/

   ...Synopsis...
   Moderate mid-level flow will remain across the Southwest on Tuesday
   with single-digit relative humidity across New Mexico. As deep
   mixing develops during the afternoon, some of this stronger flow
   will mix to the surface. In addition, a secondary lee cyclone is
   expected to develop in the TX/OK Panhandle vicinity. This will also
   aid in stronger surface winds. 15 to 25 mph sustained surface winds
   are expected across much of New Mexico. Locally critical conditions
   are probable and a Critical delineation may be needed at a later
   time, but for now, it is unclear where within the broader Elevated
   area, the greater threat may be.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 202149

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0449 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

   Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

   ...Southwest into the southern High Plains...

   ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday...
   A broad large-scale trough will persist across the West, with the
   strongest midlevel flow confined to the northwestern CONUS. Along
   the southern periphery of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly
   flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed air mass from the Southwest
   into the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to locally
   critical conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly
   dry/receptive fuels across the region. 40-percent Critical
   probabilities remain in place for these days, though confidence in
   any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce
   higher probabilities at this time. 

   ...Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday...
   On Day 5/Friday, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen
   across the Southwest, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will be
   in place. Given the strengthening midlevel flow and a modest surface
   pressure gradient, critical conditions are expected on Day 5/Friday
   over northeast AZ and northwest NM. Thereafter, a robust midlevel
   jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the
   Southwest and southern High Plains on Day 6/Saturday. This will
   promote another day of dry/windy conditions across the region, with
   the best overlap of strong surface winds and low RH atop receptive
   fuels expected over southern NM, where critical conditions are
   expected. 

   Elevated to locally critical conditions will likely continue on Day
   7/Sunday, though midlevel flow will be slightly weaker than days
   prior -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time.

   ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024