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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 161641
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Valid 161700Z - 171200Z
...1700Z Update...
A cold front has moved through most of the Permian Basin this
morning, with a dryline already pushing eastward into the lower
Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. This eastward moving trend of the
dryline will continue through afternoon as mostly clear skies allow
for good to excellent mixing conditions. Very warm afternoon
temperatures from the Davis Mountains southward into the Big Bend,
along with dewpoints in the upper teens to low 20s, will result in
RH dropping as low as the single digits. West to northwest sustained
15-20 mph winds are still anticipated, with localized Critical
sustained winds of 20-25 mph later this afternoon near and south of
the Davis Mountains. The only minor change to the Elevated area was
to eliminate a small portion of the northern extent based on the
current position of the cold front and its slow progression to the
south throughout the afternoon.
..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains as a weak
surface low develops near the Rio Grande today. Behind the low,
isallobaric and downslope northwesterly flow will overspread the
Trans Pecos region of Texas during the afternoon. 15+ mph sustained
northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH and
dry fuels, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 161837
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...2000Z Update...
A surface low will deepen in the lee of the northern Rockies over
the High Plains of southeast Montana and northeast Wyoming Friday in
association with an approaching mid-level trough. The resulting
pressure gradient will support breezy westerly sustained surface
winds around 20 to 30 mph from central Montana into Idaho and
southwest Wyoming. There's still some disagreement on how low RH
will drop across northeast Idaho and far western/southwestern
Wyoming, as mentioned in the previous forecast. Regardless, recent
rainfall over this region and relatively low fuel receptiveness will
limit the overall fire spread threat.
..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/
...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains
today, supporting strong surface lee troughing over the northern
High Plains tomorrow (Friday). A widespread, strong surface wind
field will develop over Wyoming and points eastward as a result.
However, guidance varies considerably in terms of how low RH will
drop by afternoon peak heating, with some guidance members showing
RH dropping as low as 15 percent in some spots, while other members
show RH staying well above 25 percent in many locales. When also
considering recent rainfall that portions of the northern Plains has
received in the past week, fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread
should also be mediocre. Fire weather highlights have been withheld
given the aforementioned uncertainties with RH and fuels.
Nonetheless, localized instances of wildfire growth cannot be ruled
out where dry fuel beds exist given the strong winds.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 162230
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0530 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
By early this weekend a broad, longwave trough is expected over the
far northern/northwestern CONUS with a subtropical jet continuing to
progress east-northeastward from the Gulf Coast into the Carolinas.
The mid to upper flow will then begin to amplify a bit late this
weekend into next week as an upper trough digs into the Great Basin
and a southern stream shortwave trough approaches southern
California. Stronger southwest flow aloft will begin to develop
across much of the western half of the CONUS as this occurs,
especially by D5/Monday from the northern Baja Peninsula into the
central and southern High Plains. As the week progresses, the upper
trough will traverse the Plains Tuesday and the eastern half of
CONUS by D7/Wednesday. Shortwave ridging will follow it over the
Plains as a north Pacific upper low digs a bit into the Great Basin.
Modest quasi-zonal flow will encompass most of the southern CONUS by
D8/Thursday.
...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
Increasing west to southwest surface winds are expected across New
Mexico and the High Plains D3/Saturday as a lee surface trough
slowly begins to deepen in response to increasing orthogonal mid
level flow across the southern Rockies. Some locally elevated fire
weather conditions will likely develop on D3/Saturday across
portions of northern Arizona where fine fuels receiving little to
zero appreciable rainfall will be drier, but limited area-wide
receptive fuels will preclude an introduction of higher
probabilities. Increasing sustained surface wind speeds will begin
to develop across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles through southeast
New Mexico and West Texas D4/Sunday afternoon. Mid-level
southwesterlies will continue to increase D4-D5 Monday/Tuesday from
the Desert Southwest across the southern and central Rockies,
promoting continued sustained surface wind speeds across southern
New Mexico and portions of west Texas ahead of a cold front moving
into the Texas panhandle. Fuels will continue to cure across New
Mexico, central and southern Arizona through the end of the week
where appreciable precipitation is not anticipated, although
elevated surface wind speeds will likely remained confined to
southwestern New Mexico D7/Wednesday. By D8/Thursday, however, more
widespread 15 to 20 mph sustained speeds are expected to develop
across much of New Mexico again where RH below 15% will be present.
..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024
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