ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 221649
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025
Valid 221700Z - 231200Z
Minor adjustments were made to expand the Elevated in southern New
Mexico in alignment with latest trends. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track. See previous discussion below for more
information.
..Thornton.. 06/22/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the
Intermountain West where very dry/windy conditions have been
prevalent over the past several days.
...Four Corners/Central Rockies...
Early-morning surface observations reveal a cold front draped from
southern WY southwestward to the CA coast. This front is forecast to
stall as the attendant upper low over the western CONUS begins to
de-amplify and multiple embedded perturbations lift into the
northern Plains. This pattern will maintain moderate southwesterly
flow across the Four Corners and central Rockies where another
afternoon of RH minimums in the single digits to low teens is
expected ahead of the front. Although sustained winds will be
somewhat weaker compared to previous days, 15-20 mph winds are
expected and will support widespread elevated to locally critical
fire weather conditions. Gusts upwards of 25-35 mph are expected,
especially across eastern UT into northwest CO and southern WY under
a belt of stronger mid-level flow.
...Central High Plains...
Dry and windy conditions are expected across eastern CO into
adjacent portions of NE and KS behind a sharpening dryline this
afternoon. Sustained winds between 20-25 mph are expected by late
afternoon as RH values fall into the teens. Despite reasonably high
confidence in the emergence of critical fire weather conditions,
green grasses should modulate a more substantial fire weather
threat.
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 220643
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Monday across portions
of the southern Great Basin and Four Corners regions. Mid-level flow
over the Intermountain West will continue to diminish through Monday
as the primary upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest
ejects into the southern Canadian Prairies, and a weaker secondary
low settles into the lower CO River Valley. This flow regime will
maintain southwesterly winds across southern NV and much of the Four
Corners region, but wind speeds should predominantly remain the in
the 15-20 mph range. Gusts upwards of 25-30 mph are possible -
mainly on the northern slopes of more prominent terrain features -
and may support localized areas of critical conditions as RH values
fall into the teens by peak heating. Fuels across the region will
continue to support fire spread, but the overall fire weather
concern should remain more limited compared to prior days given the
weaker wind field.
..Moore.. 06/22/2025
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 212019
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025
Valid 231200Z - 291200Z
Periods of Elevated to near Critical fire weather conditions are
possible early next week as weak troughing remains across the
western US through the period. A high amplitude ridge building
across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying
across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before
precipitation potential returns late in the period.
...Day 3-4/Monday-Tuesday...
An upper-level trough will persist over the western U.S. D3/Monday
and D4/Tuesday, with occasional daytime elevated winds across
portions of the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona.
This will extend as far north as southeastern Wyoming on D4/Tuesday
as an upper-level jet streak traverses the northern Rockies. Dry and
breezy conditions will persist, with dry fuels aiding in increased
wildfire spread potential.
...Day 5-8/Wednesday-Saturday...
The upper-level low will weaken by mid-week with winds becoming more
localized terrain driven breezes. A series of shortwaves late in the
period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain
in Idaho, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence
increases.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
Moisture will steadily increase into western New Mexico and southern
Arizona as early as Day 3/Monday and D4/Tuesday. Dry thunderstorm
threats may increase on the periphery of this deeper moisture but
confidence remains low on coverage, precluding introduction of dry
thunderstorm probabilities at this time.
..Thornton.. 06/21/2025