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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 221649

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

   Valid 221700Z - 231200Z

   Minor adjustments were made to expand the Elevated in southern New
   Mexico in alignment with latest trends. Otherwise, the forecast
   remains on track. See previous discussion below for more
   information.

   ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025/

   ...Synopsis...
   Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the
   Intermountain West where very dry/windy conditions have been
   prevalent over the past several days. 

   ...Four Corners/Central Rockies...
   Early-morning surface observations reveal a cold front draped from
   southern WY southwestward to the CA coast. This front is forecast to
   stall as the attendant upper low over the western CONUS begins to
   de-amplify and multiple embedded perturbations lift into the
   northern Plains. This pattern will maintain moderate southwesterly
   flow across the Four Corners and central Rockies where another
   afternoon of RH minimums in the single digits to low teens is
   expected ahead of the front. Although sustained winds will be
   somewhat weaker compared to previous days, 15-20 mph winds are
   expected and will support widespread elevated to locally critical
   fire weather conditions. Gusts upwards of 25-35 mph are expected,
   especially across eastern UT into northwest CO and southern WY under
   a belt of stronger mid-level flow. 

   ...Central High Plains...
   Dry and windy conditions are expected across eastern CO into
   adjacent portions of NE and KS behind a sharpening dryline this
   afternoon. Sustained winds between 20-25 mph are expected by late
   afternoon as RH values fall into the teens. Despite reasonably high
   confidence in the emergence of critical fire weather conditions,
   green grasses should modulate a more substantial fire weather
   threat.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 220643

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0143 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Monday across portions
   of the southern Great Basin and Four Corners regions. Mid-level flow
   over the Intermountain West will continue to diminish through Monday
   as the primary upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest
   ejects into the southern Canadian Prairies, and a weaker secondary
   low settles into the lower CO River Valley. This flow regime will
   maintain southwesterly winds across southern NV and much of the Four
   Corners region, but wind speeds should predominantly remain the in
   the 15-20 mph range. Gusts upwards of 25-30 mph are possible -
   mainly on the northern slopes of more prominent terrain features -
   and may support localized areas of critical conditions as RH values
   fall into the teens by peak heating. Fuels across the region will
   continue to support fire spread, but the overall fire weather
   concern should remain more limited compared to prior days given the
   weaker wind field.

   ..Moore.. 06/22/2025


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 212019

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0319 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

   Valid 231200Z - 291200Z

   Periods of Elevated to near Critical fire weather conditions are
   possible early next week as weak troughing remains across the
   western US through the period. A high amplitude ridge building
   across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying
   across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before
   precipitation potential returns late in the period.

   ...Day 3-4/Monday-Tuesday...
   An upper-level trough will persist over the western U.S. D3/Monday
   and D4/Tuesday, with occasional daytime elevated winds across
   portions of the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona.
   This will extend as far north as southeastern Wyoming on D4/Tuesday
   as an upper-level jet streak traverses the northern Rockies. Dry and
   breezy conditions will persist, with dry fuels aiding in increased
   wildfire spread potential. 

   ...Day 5-8/Wednesday-Saturday...
   The upper-level low will weaken by mid-week with winds becoming more
   localized terrain driven breezes. A series of shortwaves late in the
   period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain
   in Idaho, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence
   increases. 

   ...Dry Thunderstorms...
   Moisture will steadily increase into western New Mexico and southern
   Arizona as early as Day 3/Monday and D4/Tuesday. Dry thunderstorm
   threats may increase on the periphery of this deeper moisture but
   confidence remains low on coverage, precluding introduction of dry
   thunderstorm probabilities at this time.

   ..Thornton.. 06/21/2025
      




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