U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 201638
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Valid 201700Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/WESTERN NM
AND EASTERN AZ...
The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments/expansions
were made to the Critical highlights in AZ, based on the latest
observational data and high-resolution guidance. See the previous
discussion below for details.
..Weinman.. 05/20/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level jet streak will overspread the Southwest this afternoon
as a mid-level trough amplifies across the western CONUS. A deeply
mixed boundary layer is expected across Arizona and New Mexico with
temperatures in the 90s. Some of this stronger flow will mix to the
surface amid the deep boundary layer. In addition, lee cyclogenesis
will tighten the pressure gradient in the region and aid in stronger
surface winds. Sustained surface winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected
across New Mexico with some sustained winds over 30 mph in northern
Arizona. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across most
of the region. Fuels have started to dry to critical levels across
portions of eastern and northern Arizona. Therefore, a Critical
delineation is warranted.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 201932
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor
adjustments were made with this update. Confidence in the
development of sustained critical conditions is highest over parts
of northeastern NM, where the surface pressure gradient will be
tightest on the western periphery of a lee cyclone. However,
near-normal ERCs across this area (owing to rainfall during the last
couple weeks) limits confidence in large-fire potential --
precluding Critical highlights at this time.
..Weinman.. 05/20/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024/
...Synopsis...
Moderate mid-level flow will remain across the Southwest on Tuesday
with single-digit relative humidity across New Mexico. As deep
mixing develops during the afternoon, some of this stronger flow
will mix to the surface. In addition, a secondary lee cyclone is
expected to develop in the TX/OK Panhandle vicinity. This will also
aid in stronger surface winds. 15 to 25 mph sustained surface winds
are expected across much of New Mexico. Locally critical conditions
are probable and a Critical delineation may be needed at a later
time, but for now, it is unclear where within the broader Elevated
area, the greater threat may be.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 202149
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Valid 221200Z - 281200Z
...Southwest into the southern High Plains...
...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday...
A broad large-scale trough will persist across the West, with the
strongest midlevel flow confined to the northwestern CONUS. Along
the southern periphery of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly
flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed air mass from the Southwest
into the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to locally
critical conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly
dry/receptive fuels across the region. 40-percent Critical
probabilities remain in place for these days, though confidence in
any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce
higher probabilities at this time.
...Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday...
On Day 5/Friday, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen
across the Southwest, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will be
in place. Given the strengthening midlevel flow and a modest surface
pressure gradient, critical conditions are expected on Day 5/Friday
over northeast AZ and northwest NM. Thereafter, a robust midlevel
jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the
Southwest and southern High Plains on Day 6/Saturday. This will
promote another day of dry/windy conditions across the region, with
the best overlap of strong surface winds and low RH atop receptive
fuels expected over southern NM, where critical conditions are
expected.
Elevated to locally critical conditions will likely continue on Day
7/Sunday, though midlevel flow will be slightly weaker than days
prior -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time.
..Weinman.. 05/20/2024
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