U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 170621
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level shortwave trough will
traverse the southeastern United States with another shortwave
trough across the northern Rockies. Some breezy conditions will
accompany the system moving across the Southeast, but very moist
fuels and high relative humidity will mitigate any threat.
Overlap of low relative humidity and moderate/strong winds is
expected across the northern Rockies as a mid-level trough and
surface front move through the region. However, fuels are not dry
enough to sustain large fires at this time.
Therefore, no fire weather areas are warranted for Friday.
..Bentley.. 05/17/2024
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 170622
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
During the day Saturday, more zonal mid-level flow is expected to
develop across the western CONUS as the trough over the northern
Plains moves into Canada and ridging starts to build across the
central CONUS. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible in areas
with a deeply mixed airmass below the stronger mid-level flow across
the northern Rockies. However, fuels are moist and not favorable for
large fire spread. Farther south where fuels are dry (Southwest into
the southern High Plains), winds should be mostly light. Therefore,
despite single-digit relative humidity, overall fire weather
concerns remain low.
Some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Florida Peninsula
on Saturday with winds of 15 to 20 mph and relative humidity of 30
to 40 percent. Fuels appear most favorable south of Lake Okeechobee,
while the dry/breezy conditions will mostly be north of there. Since
there is minimal overlap of the dry fuels and the worst conditions,
no Elevated delineation has been highlighted at this time.
..Bentley.. 05/17/2024
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 162230
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0530 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
By early this weekend a broad, longwave trough is expected over the
far northern/northwestern CONUS with a subtropical jet continuing to
progress east-northeastward from the Gulf Coast into the Carolinas.
The mid to upper flow will then begin to amplify a bit late this
weekend into next week as an upper trough digs into the Great Basin
and a southern stream shortwave trough approaches southern
California. Stronger southwest flow aloft will begin to develop
across much of the western half of the CONUS as this occurs,
especially by D5/Monday from the northern Baja Peninsula into the
central and southern High Plains. As the week progresses, the upper
trough will traverse the Plains Tuesday and the eastern half of
CONUS by D7/Wednesday. Shortwave ridging will follow it over the
Plains as a north Pacific upper low digs a bit into the Great Basin.
Modest quasi-zonal flow will encompass most of the southern CONUS by
D8/Thursday.
...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
Increasing west to southwest surface winds are expected across New
Mexico and the High Plains D3/Saturday as a lee surface trough
slowly begins to deepen in response to increasing orthogonal mid
level flow across the southern Rockies. Some locally elevated fire
weather conditions will likely develop on D3/Saturday across
portions of northern Arizona where fine fuels receiving little to
zero appreciable rainfall will be drier, but limited area-wide
receptive fuels will preclude an introduction of higher
probabilities. Increasing sustained surface wind speeds will begin
to develop across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles through southeast
New Mexico and West Texas D4/Sunday afternoon. Mid-level
southwesterlies will continue to increase D4-D5 Monday/Tuesday from
the Desert Southwest across the southern and central Rockies,
promoting continued sustained surface wind speeds across southern
New Mexico and portions of west Texas ahead of a cold front moving
into the Texas panhandle. Fuels will continue to cure across New
Mexico, central and southern Arizona through the end of the week
where appreciable precipitation is not anticipated, although
elevated surface wind speeds will likely remained confined to
southwestern New Mexico D7/Wednesday. By D8/Thursday, however, more
widespread 15 to 20 mph sustained speeds are expected to develop
across much of New Mexico again where RH below 15% will be present.
..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024
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