326
FXUS66 KSTO 062023
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
123 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty north to east winds Tuesday through Thursday, strongest
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Widespread Valley highs will
be near or exceed 90 by this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Northwest flow behind our past weekend`s trough dominates the
forecast pattern today ushering in a warming and drying trend over
the short-term. An upper-level high will build over the Eastern
Pacific, moving into the Pacific NW Wednesday and throughout the
rest of the work week. This will induce gusty north to east winds
over the area, beginning Tuesday morning through Thursday. North
to east winds 20 to 30 MPH are expected with gusts up to 45 MPH.
NBM probabilities show a 65-90% chance of gusts exceeding 40 MPH
and 70-95% chance over the mountains from Tuesday night into
Thursday morning. As a result, a Wind Advisory has been issued for
Western portions of the Sacramento Valley, Delta Region,
including Interstate 5 and portions of Interstate 80 and 505 from
Tuesday 11 PM to 8 AM Thursday. Strongest winds are expected
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and again, late Wednesday
night into Thursday early morning.

There is a chance for gusty winds up to 35-45 MPH across the
Northern Sacramento Valley, including Redding, Thursday morning as
the gradient tightens as a low moves ito the Great Basin area and
high pressure builds in the Pacific NW. However, confidence isn`t
high enough for the area to be included in the current wind
advisory. Nonetheless, be sure to secure outdoor items and be
cautious of any blown down tree limbs! Winds will begin to taper
off Thursday afternoon in the Valley with lingering breezy winds
over the mountains through the evening.

With this current pattern, temperatures will warm throughout the
week and by Thursday afternoon highs will in the mid to upper 80s
in the Valley with 70s and 60s across the foothills and mountains
respectively. NBM probabilities show a 15-45% chance of
temperatures exceeding 90 degrees across portions of the Central
Sacramento Valley on Thursday. The forecast pattern continues to
show warmer temperatures are in store as the week continues.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)...

Upper-level ridge over the eastern Pacific will be the primary
synoptic feature late week and through the weekend. Maximum
temperatures will be upwards of 10 to 15 degrees above early May
climatology with many Valley communities forecast to experience
their first 90 deg F day of the calendar year. The temperature
forecast confidence decreases Sunday/Monday as clusters depict
various outcomes of the positioning and strength of the ridge
during that time. Dry conditions are expected through the
extended. // Rowe

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hrs. Sfc wind mainly
under 12 kts outside of 15-20 kts west winds in the vicinity of
the Delta Tue 00z thru Tue 09z. Gusty north to east winds Tuesday.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 PM Tuesday to 8 AM PDT Thursday for
Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Mountains
Southwestern Shasta County to Western Colusa County-Northern
Sacramento Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley.

&&

$$