ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NNNN

058 
AXNT20 KNHC 171008
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri May 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 05.5N22W. The ITCZ
extends from 05.5N22W to 03N40W and to 03.5N52W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 01N to 09N 
between 02W and 20W, from 05N to 07N between 20W and 42W, and south
of 08.5N between 46W and 54W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is across the NW Gulf of Mexico, extending from SW 
Louisiana to southern Texas. A warm front extends from offshore of
Venice, Florida to SE Louisiana. A large area of heavy showers 
and strong thunderstorms continues to move eastward across the 
Gulf waters north of 28N, and extends inland across coastal areas
of Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle. This storm complex is 
being supported by moist low level southerly return flow and upper
level diffluence. The remainder of the basin is dominated by 
southerly return flow, occurring between a weak Atlantic ridge 
extending westward into the central Bahamas, and low pressure 
across east and southeast Mexico.

Overnight scatterometer satellite data showed fresh to strong SE 
winds in the south-central Gulf waters, especially south of 26N 
and between 84W and 90W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. 
Moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds are evident in the rest of 
the western half of the Gulf, especially west of 90W. Seas in the 
area described are also 4-6 ft. Mariners are advised that stronger
winds and higher seas are likely occurring near the more intense 
storms moving into the NE basin. Elsewhere in the basin, light to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Areas of haze 
and smoke due to agricultural fires in Mexico and Central America 
continue across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the warm front will continue to lift northward 
and inland through late today, with strong thunderstorms ahead of 
it. The stationary front across the Texas coastal waters will 
meander there today before shifting E across the northern Gulf 
tonight through Mon, supported by a series of upper-level 
disturbances moving from W to E. This will maintain active weather
over the northern Gulf through most of the weekend. Elsewhere, 
moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin, except 
pulsing to locally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay 
of Campeche through Sat night. Winds will slightly weaken Sun into
early next week as the pressure gradient relaxes. Meanwhile, 
areas of haze and smoke due to agricultural fires in Mexico 
continue across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak and narrow Atlantic ridge extends westward along 25N to the
central Bahamas. The pressure gradient between this ridge north 
of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressures in the deep tropics is
resulting in fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras,
where seas have built to 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly trade
winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found in the south- central 
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas are prevalent. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural 
fires in Central America continues across areas of the NW 
Caribbean, where smoke is reducing the visibility in the Gulf of 
Honduras. 

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will sink southward to
24N-25N through Sun night. This pattern will maintain strong 
winds in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun, reaching near gale- 
force Fri evening into Sat morning and again Sat night. Fresh to 
strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Venezuela and 
offshore Colombia through Sun night. Gentle to moderate winds are 
expected elsewhere through early next week. Meanwhile, smoke due 
to agricultural fires in Central America continues across areas of
the northwestern Caribbean, and will continue reducing the 
visibility in the Gulf of Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the SW North Atlantic near 31N67W and
continues southwestward to the NW Bahamas. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen on satellite imagery within 90 nm
east of the front, to the east of 73W. Moderate to fresh S-SW 
winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found ahead of the front to 60W and 
north of 28N. A weak high pressure pattern dominates the 
remainder of the western Atlantic, west of 55W, supporting light 
to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.

A broad ridge over the far north Atlantic is the most prominent
feature in the central and eastern Atlantic, sustaining moderate
to locally fresh easterly trade winds south of 20N and west of
35W. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Fresh to locally strong 
northerly winds and seas of 7-10 ft are noted off the coast of 
Morocco. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will move slowly 
eastward, and shift east of 55W by Mon. Active weather is expected
to continue ahead of the front through Sun. Fresh southerly winds
ahead of the front will continue through this afternoon, then 
become moderate Fri night through Sat afternoon, then diminish 
further. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are 
expected through Sun night as weak high pressure extends E to W 
along 24N-25N. A new front will sink southward into the waters 
offshore of Georgia and NE Florida early Mon and move SE and 
weaken through Tue.

$$
Stripling

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles offshore of 
the coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce some 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While environmental 
conditions appear only marginally favorable due to nearby dry air, 
some development of this system is possible during the next day or 
so as the low remains nearly stationary. By late this weekend, the 
low is forecast to interact or merge with another system to its 
east, and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

2. South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form several hundred miles to the 
south of southern Mexico during the next couple of days. Some slow 
development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves slowly 
to the west or west-northwest, remaining south of the coast of 
Mexico by the middle portion of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Reinhart

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170930
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri May 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1008 mb low pressure located 
over northern Colombia near 10N74W to 12N95W to 1008 mb low 
pressure situated near 10N105W to 08N113W. The ITCZ continues 
from 08N113W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection can be found from 05N to 13N between 82W and 
98W, and from 08N to 11N between 103W and 109W. Similar convective
activity is noted from 10N to 13N E of 89W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to locally strong NW to
N winds across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California 
between Cabo San Lucas and Punta Eugenia where seas are in the 5
to 7 ft range. Mainly moderate NW winds are noted N of Punta 
Eugenia, including the Sebastian Vizcaino Bay. Seas are 4 to 6 
ft within these winds, except 2 to 4 ft in the Bay. In the Gulf 
of California, gentle to moderate SE to S winds are seen N of 29N
while light to gentle winds prevail across the central and south
parts of the Gulf with seas of 1 to 3 ft. Light to gentle winds 
are also observed across the remainder of the Mexican offshore 
waters with seas of 4 to 5 ft in long period SW swell.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the offshore forecast
waters of Baja California producing moderate to locally fresh NW
to N winds and moderate seas through the upcoming weekend. In the
Gulf of California, expect gentle to locally moderate southerly
winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft, with the exception of 3 to 5 ft 
near the entrance to the Gulf. These marine conditions will 
persist through Sun. Light to gentle winds are expected across 
the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters through Sun with 
moderate seas in long period SW swell.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form 
several hundred miles to the south of southern Mexico during the 
next day or two. Some gradual development of this system is 
possible thereafter as it moves slowly to the west or west- 
northwest, remaining south of the coast of Mexico by the middle 
portion of next week.

A  small area of low pressure is located several hundred miles 
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Shower and 
thunderstorm activity has become a little more concentrated near 
the low tonight, and recent satellite wind data suggests the 
center is embedded in the convection. While environmental 
conditions appear only marginally favorable due to nearby dry 
air, some additional development of this system is possible 
during the next day or so as the low drifts slowly. By this 
weekend, the low is forecast to interact or merge with another 
system to its east.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail S of the monsoon trough
along with moderate seas in long period SW swell. N of the monsoon
trough, winds are light to gentle and seas are also moderate in 
SW swell. An altimeter pass indicate seas of 4 to 6 ft N of 02N. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds are forecast
south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds north of
it through the end of the week. Southerly swell moving through 
the regional waters will support seas of 4 to 6 ft through the 
remainder of the week, building to 6 to 8 ft between Ecuador and 
the Galapagos Islands this weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails N of 10N and W of 110W with a 1021 mb 
center located near 28N128W. The pressure gradient between the 
area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the 
ITCZ is supporting an area of moderate to locally fresh trade 
winds from 05N to 15N W of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 5 
to 7 ft range. Mainly light and variable winds dominate the 
waters N of 20N W of 120W under the influence of the above
mentioned high pressure center. Latest scatterometer and altimeter
data provide observations of fresh to strong S to SW winds in the
southern semicircle of the low pressure located near 10N105W with
seas of 8 to 10 ft from 06N to 10N between 101W and 106W. 

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the
forecast waters N of 10N and W of 110W through the upcoming 
weekend with moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate 
seas along the southern periphery of its associated ridge. The 
high pressure will strengthen Sun into Mon bringing some increase
in winds across the offshore waters of Baja California, and in 
the trade wind zone. Northerly swell will build seas to 8 ft across
the far NW corner of the forecast region Fri and Fri night.

$$
GR

No Storms to Report