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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg
NNNN
    

417 
AXNT20 KNHC 072307
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Jun 08 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 50W from 02N
to 11N moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are west of the wave to inland French Guiana and 
to inland the northeast section of Brazil.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of 
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 09N19W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ extends from 09N19W to 05N45W. 
Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm south of 
the ITCZ between 21W-26W, and within 120 nm north of the ITCZ
between 33W-45W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure continues to extend westward from the Atlantic to
across Florida and the central Gulf waters. A trough is analyzed
over the western Bay of Campeche along 95W/96W south of 23N. 
Isolated showers are near the trough, except for scattered 
showers a few thunderstorms along and within 30 nm of the coast 
of Mexico near Veracruz. The related gradient is allowing for 
generally light to gentle southeast to south winds, except for 
gentle to moderate southeast to south winds in the western half 
of the basin and for light south to southwest winds in the NE 
section. Seas are 2-4 ft throughout. A weak surface trough is in 
the Bay of Campeche. Winds may pulse to moderate speeds off the 
tip of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the NW Gulf off the coasts of
Texas and Mexico.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend its ridge 
into the eastern Gulf through the weekend, then build modestly 
westward into the central Gulf through the middle of next week. 
Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are expected each 
afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the
eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves 
westward, with moderate to fresh southeast winds elsewhere in the
western and south-central Gulf. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and 
relatively lower pressures in South America is supporting fresh 
to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of
Venezuela, as noted in the most recent satellite scatterometer 
data. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in the central 
basin along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate trades 
and 3-5 ft seas prevail in the eastern and western Caribbean. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident on 
satellite imagery along the coast of Nicaragua.

For the forecast, weak high pressure over the western Atlantic
will shift northeastward and into the N central Atlantic through
the weekend. The Atlantic ridge will then build southwestward 
SW into the Bahamas and S Florida later today through the middle 
of next week. This pattern will lead to fresh to strong trades 
and moderate to rough seas across most of the central basin, 
spreading westward through the middle of next week, except in the
SW Caribbean where winds will be weaker. Moderate to fresh winds
will be mainly elsewhere. Seas will build to rough status with 
the increasing winds, as well as in the Tropical N Atlantic by 
early next week through at least mid-week. 

Of Note: A potential for significant rain exist into early next 
week across eastern Nicaragua and possibly into northeast 
Honduras as unsettled weather is forecast to develop across the 
area. Uncertainty in terms of rainfall amounts is high at this 
time. Please refer to your local meteorological office for more 
details. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is analyzed over the basin. Refer to the section
above for details.

The tropical Atlantic is dominated by high pressure of 1031 mb
centered near the Azores. Gentle to moderate trades and 4-7 ft 
seas prevail across the basin. Isolated showers are north of 
29N between 61W and 76W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal trough near 79W will 
continue to enhance weather east of it mainly N of 29N. Atlantic
high pressure will build modestly W-SW into the Bahamas and S 
Florida through Tue, then weaken slightly by mid-week. Expect 
fresh to strong winds to pulse each afternoon and evening 
offshore of Hispaniola early next week, with pulsing moderate to 
fresh winds off NE Florida and elsewhere south of 22N. These 
winds will weaken somewhat at midweek as the high weakens.

$$
Aguirre
  

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Sat Jun 7 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located a little more than 150 miles south of the southern coast of 
Mexico have continued to become more organized during the past few 
hours. Although the system does not yet appear to have a 
well-defined circulation, further development is anticipated and a 
tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form later today 
or tonight. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward near 
15 mph today, then continue in that general direction at a slightly 
slower forward speed through early next week. Locally heavy rains 
are possible along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico 
during the next couple of days, and interests there should monitor 
the progress of this system. For additional information, including 
gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National 
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP91): 
A broad area of low pressure located about 600 miles southwest of 
the southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is 
still expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form late 
this weekend or early next week while it moves slowly northward to 
northwestward. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

3. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late next week south 
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
some gradual development of this system as it moves 
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

Forecaster D. Zelinsky
    

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072206
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jun 07 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Pacific Gale Warning: Low pressure of 1004 mb (Invest
EP92) is near 14N100W, or about 150 nm off the coast of southern
Mexico. satellite imagery shows that numerous moderate to strong
convection continues to become more organized from 10N to 17N 
between 93W and 101W. Strong to gale force winds and seas of 8 to
12 ft are within 120 nm of the coast of western Oaxaca and 
southeastern Guerrero. Although the system does not yet appear to
have a well-defined circulation, further development is 
anticipated and a tropical depression or tropical storm will 
likely form later today or tonight. The system is forecast to 
move west-northwestward just off the coast of Mexico, and will
possibly reach near Socorro Island early next week. Locally 
heavy rains are possible along portions of the southwestern coast
of Mexico during the next couple of days, and interests there 
should monitor the progress of this system. Gale conditions and 
rough to very rough seas are forecast for the offshore waters of 
southern and western Mexico through early Mon. For additional 
information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml. This system has a
high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 
hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
 
A low pressure system (Invest EP91) is located about 520 nm 
southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico near 10N109W 
with a a pressure of 1007 mb. satellite imagery shows
disorganized scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 
from 07N to 13N between 107W and 112W. Seas to 8 ft are within 
about 150 nm to the southwest of the low pressure as indicated
by the most recent altimeter satellite data that sampled that 
part of the area. Gradual development of this system is still 
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this 
weekend or early next week while it moves slowly northward to 
northwestward. This system has a high chance of becoming a 
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the 
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for 
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to
across southern Costa Rica, then to 10N84W to 14N100W to 10N111W
and to 07N126W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues 
to 08N136W. Aside from convection associated with Invest EP91 and 
EP92, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within
60 nm south of the trough between 123W-125W, and within 30 nm
south of the ITCZ between 139W-136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on two
areas of low pressure with potential for tropical cyclone 
development.

A weak pressure pattern in place is allowing for generally 
gentle to moderate northwest to north winds offshore Baja 
California, with occasional fresh winds between Punta Eugenia
and Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere off 
southern Mexico and in the Gulf of California. Combined seas are 
4 to 6 ft off Baja California primarily in NW swell, and 3 to 5 
ft primarily in long-period southwest swell off southern Mexico,
with the exception of the strong winds related to Invest EP92 as
described above under Special Features. Seas of 3 ft are over 
the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the main issue will be the potential for a
tropical depression or tropical storm to form off southern 
Mexico described in the Special Features section. Expect fresh to
strong winds with rough seas over the offshore waters off 
western Oaxaca and southeastern Guerrero late this afternoon
and evening, with the range of these seas of 8 to 12 ft late
this afternoon and into this evening, building to 10 to 15 ft
tonight.

These adverse marine conditions will expand westward across the 
offshore waters toward Cabo Corrientes through early next week 
as low pressure farther to the south off the coast possibly 
becomes a tropical depression. Mariners should continue to 
monitor the latest statements from the National Hurricane Center 
on the possible tropical cyclone development, and plan their
routes accordingly to avoid the adverse marine conditions.

Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in south to 
southwest swell are expected elsewhere outside the impacted 
waters of the Special Feature low pressure (Invest EP91) through 
the weekend. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late 
next week south of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for some gradual development of this system as 
it moves west-northwestward.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient remains over the area resulting
generally in gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the 
monsoon trough, and light to gentle winds to the north of it. 
Cross-equatorial southwest swell is producing moderate seas 
across the offshore forecast waters.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong gap winds across the 
Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua will diminish Mon.
Mainly gentle to moderate breezes will persist elsewhere. 
Moderate seas in cross equatorial swell will subside early next 
week. Abundant deep tropical moisture will persist across the 
region maintaining a high likelihood of additional showers and 
thunderstorms for the next few days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

1028 mb high pressure is located well north of the area near 
41N141W. A rather persistent surface trough extends from a 1014 
mb low that is north of the area at 35N127W, south-southwestward
to 30N124W and to near 25N128W. No significant convection is 
occurring with this feature. Seas are reaching 8 ft along 10N 
between 135W and 140W. Gentle to moderate trades along with seas 
of 5 to 7 ft due to a mix of north and southwest swell are 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, a trough is analyzed over the far western part 
of the area from 10N137W to 05N138.5W. Latest scatterometer 
satellite data reveals moderate to fresh northeast to east winds
north and northeast of the trough to near 15N and east to 132W.
The gradient between the trough and the high pressure to the 
north should keep these winds in place through the early part 
of the upcoming week even as the trough shifts west of 140W. The
seas to 8 ft in north to northeast swell with these winds will
linger into early next week. 

$$
Aguirre
  

No Storms to Report